Tuesday, March 15, 2016

March Sports John 2016



*Math  Sports  03-15-2016
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/83855124/316/MS.pdf
JOHN  17
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/83855124/316/J17.pdf
JOHN  1 : 1-18
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/83855124/316/J118.pdf













http://16mlb.blogspot.com/2016/02/arizona-diamondbacks.html

_____________________ 


March Madness

Vegas Insider

Injuries



BPI   ESPN   LIST   make  alpha  list  PVA
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi


  • PVA: BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.

College Basketball 
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14964029/first-look-all-68-march-madness-teams-2016-ncaa-tournament 


Vegas Insider
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

Injuries
http://www.donbest.com/ncaab/injuries/

Bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket


Bracket Gif
http://espn.go.com/i/ncaa/basketball/ncaatourney16/ncaam_bracket_blank.gif

Bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket

NCAA tournament field
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14964029/first-look-all-68-march-madness-teams-2016-ncaa-tournament

Bracket
http://espn.go.com/i/ncaa/basketball/ncaatourney16/ncaam_bracket_blank.pdf

2016 NCAA tournament coverage
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/ncaatournament/2016-ncaa-tournament-news-march-madness

TeamRankings      Power Rankings
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/predictive-by-other/
Vanderbilt  BPI
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/238

 Vanderbilt Schedule  with  BPI
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi/_/id/238/vanderbilt-commodores

 http://fanmd.blogspot.com/2016/02/next-feb-2016.html_

 ____________________

- not sure
when in doubt   go with underdog

_______________________________________________________________

 *Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +5.5

 - No bet

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights  +6.5
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi?id=161&year=2016


Florida Gulf Coast Eagles 
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi?id=526&year=2016
_____________________

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

BPI
48.2

PVA
-0.6


PVA: BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.

- No injuries

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles is the better team


_______

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

BPI
36.8

PVA
-4.5

- No injuries


_______

ESPN Delta 3.9

Vegas gives a little value with to Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +5.5

- No bet

_______________________________________________________________


Vanderbilt +3.5

Espn Delta Zero

Vanderbilt +3 underdog

Wichita State



Vanderbilt +3.5

Espn Delta Zero

___

Vanderbilt Commodores

BPI
79.9

PVA
11.6


___

Wichita St Shockers

BPI
79.7

PVA
11.5




Wichita State
Date
Pos
Player
Injury
Status
03/13/16
G
Landry Shamet
Foot
expected to miss 10-12 weeks



Injury

Landry Shamet 8.7 last game 11/21 Non Factor



_______________________________________________________________


_____________________

Holy Cross +3 underdog

Southern
_____________________

Tulsa +3 underdog


Michigan

_____________________

_______________________________________________________________

Holy Cross ESPN DELTA 3.5

Vegas Holy Cross +2.5

_______________________________________________________________


Tulsa +4



03/13/16 C Emmanuel Ezechinonso Illness out indefinitely

Nonfactor



Michigan

Michigan
Date Pos Player Injury Status
12/11/15 G Spike Albrecht Hip out for season
03/04/16 G Caris LeVert Knee out for season

Caris LeVert
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/61810/caris-levert


Spike Albrecht Non factor


Espn Delta Zero



_______________________________________________________________


Wild Card Round  68

Recommend  - No bet   wild card games


_______________________________________________________________

_____________________


2016 March Madness bracket
The most likely upsets on each seed line


Here are your most likely upsets by seed line

___


No. 11 Wichita State over No. 6 Arizona

The No. 11 seeds this year are a pretty strong crop.

Gonzaga over Seton Hall will be a popular pick.

Notre Dame is a vulnerable No. 6.

Northern Iowa has already shown a penchant for picking teams off this season, having caught both Iowa State and North Carolina.

In the end though, I'm going Wichita State over Arizona. That is, if Wichita can get past Vanderbilt, which is no easy task.


___

No. 12 Little Rock over No. 5 Purdue

current bracketing procedures
that favor high-major teams
over strong mid-majors that win their leagues

The 2016 bracket
every single 5-12 game
has the potential to end with
the lower-seeded team advancing

___

No. 13 UNC-Wilmington over No. 4 Duke

Iona is going to force Iowa State to really test its depth in altitude by playing extremely up-tempo basketball in Denver.

Hawaii has the guard play and size to upset California, who was beset by scandal on Monday.

Stony Brook will have an advantage inside against Kentucky due to Jameel Warney.

___


No. 14 Stephen F. Austin over No. 3 West Virginia


___


No. 15 Cal-State Bakersfield over No. 2 Oklahoma


___

No. 16 Southern over No. 1 Oregon

___


NCAA bracket predictions 2016
Who should be your upset pick


Ken Pomeroy

kenpom.com

MIDWEST REGION

No. 12 Arkansas Little Rock > No. 5 Purdue (29 percent)

SOUTH REGION

No. 13 Hawaii > No. 4 Cal (31 percent)

EAST REGION

No. 14 Stephen F. Austin > No. 3 West Virginia (30 percent)

WEST REGION

No. 13 UNC-Wilmington vs. No. 4 Duke (28 percent)


___



Ken Pomeroy


___

Washington Post

2016 NCAA Tournament


___


The most likely upsets for the first round



creating extra possessions through turnovers and rebounds


Stephen F. Austin


No. 10 VCU over No. 7 Oregon State


No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 6 Seton Hall



___


Four Cinderellas


Stephen F. Austin


Hawaii



Arkansas Little-Rock


Virginia Commonwealth

___


grass roots



South Dakota State

Stony Brook

Arkansas-Little Rock

Florida Gulf Coast

___

Here’s why No. 12 seeded teams upset No. 5 seeds in the NCAA tournament



12 seed


___

Teams that fit the mold this year
as a 12-seed include
Arkansas-Little Rock (29-4),
Chattanooga (29-5)
South Dakota State (26-7)

___

No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 12 South Dakota State

Chance of an upset: 30.6 percent

___

No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Ya

Chance of an upset: 43.1 percent

___

No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 12 Little Rock

Chance of an upset: 32.0 percent

___

No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 12 Chattanooga

Chance of an upset: 20.6 percent


___

Stephen F. Austin

North Carolina Wilmington

Hawaii

Iona

Green Bay





___


Jay Kornegay

head oddsmaker
Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook


___

Favorites



___

vulnerable top seeds


Oregon | No. 1 – West

Xavier | No. 2 – East

Utah | No. 3 – Midwest

___

The most likely upsets for the first round


___


The perfect NCAA Bracket to win your March Madness pool

Lower Seed Wins First Round

Connecticut
Cincinnati
Yale
VCU
Michigan / Tulsa
Stephen F Austin
Gonzaga
Syracuse

Neil Greenberg analyzes advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog



___


March Madness
Best value picks to win your NCAA tournament bracket pool


___



(12) YALE OVER (5) BAYLOR, WEST REGION

(14) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN OVER (3) WEST VIRGINIA, EAST REGION

(11) NORTHERN IOWA OVER (6) TEXAS, WEST REGION


___

Compile Multiple Sources


___


FiveThirtyEight has long been a valuable source of assigning probabilities and pointing out inherent flaws in the seeding process. Those statistical observations are laid out as part of the website's 2016 March Madness predictions matrix, an interactive graphic that shows how likely every team is to win in each round of the tournament. It's a fundamental starting point to filling out a decent bracket.


___

Bilas



___

Over Seeded
Iowa State
Wisconsin
Duke



___

Over Rated

Duke
Maryland
Oregon
Utah


___

Sports Illustrated


___

Upset Picks

UNC Wilmington over Duke

Temple over Iowa




___


Yale Can Beat Baylor

Northern Iowa Can Beat Texas

Hawaii Can Beat California

Arkansas-Little Rock Can Beat Purdue

Stephen F. Austin Can Beat West Virginia

Gonzaga Can Beat Seton Hall

Southern / Holy Cross Can Beat Oregon


___


2016 NCAA Tournament:
Which top seeds are on Upset Watch


These are the Goliaths that could be toppled during the first weekend of the tournament:

No. 1 (East) North Carolina:

Providence


No. 1 (West) Oregon:

Saint Joseph’s

No. 3 (East) West Virginia:

Notre Dame

No. 3 (Midwest) Utah:

Seton Hall

No. 4 (West) Duke:

UNC Wilmington presses full court, trying to force turnovers and wear down their opponent.


No. 4 (Midwest) Iowa State:

Iona

No. 5 (Midwest) Purdue:

Arkansas-Little Rock
who went 29-4 with wins at Tulsa and at SDSU, plays a Pack-Line defense, which is one of the best ways to keep big men from getting easy touches in the paint.

No. 6 (West) Texas:

Northern Iowa is really, really good and potentially under-seeded


No. 6 (South) Arizona:

That said, both Vanderbilt and Wichita State are good enough to make it out of the first weekend. This is a tough draw for the Wildcats.


___

EAST



UPSETS THAT CAN HAPPEN

No. 14 Stephen F. Austin over No. 3 West Virginia: The Lumberjacks are 58-1 in Southland play the last two seasons and won a game in the tournament two years ago against a VCU team that ran a similar press to WVU. When two teams with similar strengths go head-to-head, I usually bet on who does it better, but SFA is really, really good.

No. 9 Providence to the Sweet 16: UNC has been much, much improved defensively, but they still don’t have the ideal personnel to guard ball-screens. Providence loves to run ball-screens for Kris Dunn, and there’s an argument to be made that the Friars will have the two best players on the floor with Dunn and Ben Bentil.


FEEL LIKE GAMBLING?: No. 2 Xavier to the Final Four

___

SOUTH



FINAL FOUR SLEEPER: Vanderbilt/Wichita State winner


UPSETS THAT CAN HAPPEN

No. 12 South Dakota State over No. 5 Maryland: I’m just not sold on Maryland being able to turn this thing around. The pieces don’t fit. SDSU is no pushover. They have a really good back court and a big man in Mike Daum that is as productive on a per-minute basis as anyone in the country. Don’t let Max Landis get it going from three.

No. 13 Hawai’i over No. 4 Cal: Hawai’i is going to have a long way to travel to get to Spokane, but once they get there they’ll give Cal some trouble Stefan Jankovic is a matchup problem up front with Eran Ganot has a couple guards that can really lock up in his back court. If good Jabari Brown shows up, however, how does Hawai’i stop him?

No. 7 Iowa over No. 2 Villanova: I have zero faith in Iowa being able to win this game — get to this game? — but on paper, they really do matchup well with the Wildcats. If he can handle Josh Hart’s physicality, Jarrod Uthoff is a tough cover for Hart, while Villanova’s guards and Iowa’s guards are similarly limited.

FEEL LIKE GAMBLING?: Maryland-Cal winner in the Final Four

___

Mid West



FINAL FOUR SLEEPER: No. 3 Utah

UPSETS THAT CAN HAPPEN

No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 6 Seton Hall: There’s two reasons for this: Will Seton Hall play with the same intensity they did in New York? And how will the Pirates deal with a front line that includes Kyle Wiltjer and Domas Sabonis?

No. 12 Little Rock over No. 5 Purdue: Little Rock is really, really good. They won at San Diego State and won at Tulsa during non-conference. They also run a pack-line defense, which will help limit the impact of Purdue’s big men.

No. 13 Iona over No. 4 Iowa State: How good is this game going to be? First to 120 points wins. Iowa State will have the best player on the floor in Georges Niang, but A.J. English is a stud and the Gaels are dangerous when they get it going offensively.

FEEL LIKE GAMBLING?: No. 6 Seton Hall to the Sweet 16

___

WEST


FINAL FOUR SLEEPER: Northern Iowa


UPSETS THAT CAN HAPPEN

No. 13 UNC Wilmington over No. 4 Duke: This is going to be a tough matchup for the Blue Devils. UNCW plays like VCU and West Virginia. They press for 40 minutes and continually throw bodies at you. They never tire. Duke? They basically have six guys, and the only one that’s a point guard Derryck Thornton. Tired legs and turnovers really plays into UNCW’s hands.

No. 8 Saint Joseph’s over No. 1 Oregon: My colleague Raphielle Johnson mentioned this on the latest podcast, but St. Joe’s matches up really well with Oregon. They have a pair of versatile defenders in Isaiah Miles and Deandre Bembry that will take away from of Oregon’s small-ball lineup advantage.

No. 11 Northern Iowa over No. 6 Texas: Do I need to explain it more than what I wrote above? UNI is really good.

No. 11 Northern Iowa over No. 3 Texas A&M: As good as Texas A&M is, I think they’re somewhat limited by a back court of Alex Caruso and Anthony Collins. Those guys aren’t shooters, and you need shooters when your front line is your strength.


FEEL LIKE GAMBLING?: Saint Joseph’s to the Elite 8




_____________________
_____________________

 Good Stuff
_____________________
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/sort/netPointsVsAverage

 PVA: BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.

 NCAA  college Basketball

 Round 64

 in general

 Vegas  point spreads  are close to  PVA differential

 PVA favorite  -  PVA underdog  =  Vegas Point Spread  +  Bonus points for underdog

 Keep in mind

 it's Neutral court

 - No home court advantage

 with respect to  Visual-Spatial  3 D

 you can still have crowd noise

 Underdogs will give Super Max effort in Game One

 Favorites are pacing / looking ahead

 If you were betting big money

 you would look at Injuries
Impact of Injuries

 Power Ratings  TeamRankings  and  KenPom

 read all the ESPN analysis

 Bilas

 Watch games

 But  i am only betting a dollar

 ___

know that
Vegas point spread is close to ESPN  PVA differential

 No home court

 Underdog Super Max effort

 Favorite Pacing / Look ahead 

 Power Ratings and Seedings are skewed

 Whole Season  vs  Recent Real Time Power Rating

 Time Lag

 Time Scaling

 Seasonal bias

 Recency bias

 you want recency bias

 1 game
5 games
10 games

 recent games

 ___

 focus on Underdogs

 who is coming in Hot  / Cold

 Hot / Cold
___
_____________________


Kentucky
BPI   Schedule

 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats
BPI  Resume

 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/96
BPI 

 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi

 The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a team rating system that accounts for the final score, pace of play, site, strength of opponent and absence of key players in every Division I men's game. BPI can be used to measure both how well a team has performed (going far beyond just wins and losses) and how powerful it is likely to be going forward.

 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi

 BPI: The College Basketball Power Index, on a 0-100 scale (50 is average; higher is better).
BPI RK: Rank of overall BPI among Division I teams.
PVA: BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.
UNC   90.3   BPI

 Cent Conn St   11.9   BPI
Note the range of BPI   0-100

50  is average

 UMass   rank  175
50.1   BPI
0.0   PVA
(  175 x 2 = 350  )
Note range of  PVA

 UNC   18.7   PVA

 Cent Conn St   -16.8   PVA

 BPI  50     =    Zero PVA

 PVA  range  +18.7  /  -16.8

 Correlate  BPI  PVA  and  Rank   
Rank       BPI     PVA

 1    UNC     90.3     18.7

11   Duke   84.5   14.3
20   Maryland     81.7     12.6


63   Georgetown    69.9    7.1

Benchmarks

 _______

 College Basketball

 Primary Protocol

 Underdog  +10 points

 Question

 Can the Underdog cover ?

 For Both Teams
look at the ESPN schedule w/ BPI
look at performance against top teams
look at recent performance

 ___

 +10 points

 i think 10 is a magic number
easy for both teams to calculate

 you can increase / decrease the  point spread data filter

 ___
6    +200

 8    +300

 College Basketball is a  Point Spread game

 i think you can get Value by betting the Moneyline

 going from  point spread  to  moneyline

 the conversion equation is incorrect

 6  to  8 
that is just a two point differential
and does Not merit a increased payout from +200 to +300

 the moneyline payout increase out of proportion
to the incremental point spread

 2 points  gives you an extra +$100
that is an excessive payout

 Point Spread sports

 the conversion of Point Spread to Moneyline
used by Vegas is an erroneous equation
and is Not based on real world probabilites

 i would propose

 6   +200

 8   +225

 see what i mean
___

 Second Protocol 

 look at the Moneylines

 you want +200  and better

 Question
Can the Underdog win 50/50 ?

 40/60 ?

 ___

 You gotta look at moneylines

 ___

 There is a flaw in Vegas' Moneyline calculation

 the higher moneylines do Not reflect real world probabilities

 remember  Von Miller  SB  MVP

 ___

 right now
at the end of the regular season
you have more data

 ___

 ESPN  BPI   PVA
correlates very well with Vegas
Vegas Point Spread
=  PVA favorite  - PVA underdogs

 + bonus to underdog 

 bonus points
adjustment (Vegas)

 i think ESPN power rating  BPI   PVA
is the best
and Vegas uses ESPN numbers

 ESPN is the one to use

 i also noted that TeamRankings.com is close to Vegas

 ___

 Power Ratings

 ESPN  BPI  PVA
have a seasonal bias

 and may Not reflect
true real time
power ratings
to predict the next game

 recent up/down  is diluted

 let's say that a team starts slow
but gets better
and the last 5 games
is very hot
and beating the best teams

 Power Ratings will  have a Lag

 This is where you can get an Edge

 ___

 Edge / Advantage

 Vegas likes Underdogs and gives them extra points

 Power Ratings is used by Vegas

 Power Ratings may Not reflect most recent up/down

 Consider Home Court

 Home Court is Big in college

 Also consider
College Kids are unpredictable

 ___

 March Madness

 Underdog Motivation is Round One is an Advantage

 300

 Favorites are looking ahead and pacing

 two different styles of play

 Nobody has Home Court Advantage
Visual  Spatial

 Crowd

 Round  64

 Vegas likes Underdogs
and want Upsets
to Wreck Brackets and Parlays

 ___

 NiT  and other playoffs

 Motivation is questionable

 remember Kentucky being knocked out the first game of NiT
a few years ago

 ___

 March Madness

 Round  64

 is a special circumstance

 ___

 during the regular season
you will Not know motivation

 ___

 Large Point Spreads

 Recent Performance

 Small Bets

 Equi Betting

 Equal size betting

 this how you do risk management

 ___

 Warren Buffett
uses  Safety Margin
and Long term 
buy low 
sell high
to neutralize Noise

 ___

 Wow
Genius

 PTL

 ___

 College Basketball has opportunities

 but you need to know the system characteristics

 ___

 NBA is Insanity

 at this point in the season
teams are quitting and getting blown out by 20+ points

 First Quarter Strong Underdog

 ___

 NBA pro players
do Not care about the home crowd

 ___

 College 
players need to face the fans every day
___
___

 college basketball

 next level

 INJURIES

 Impact  of  Injuries

 ___

 Point of diminishing returns

 Watch games 

 College Kids = Volatile

 Additional investment in time
will likely not give you improved results

 every sport has it's limitations

 what if you could talk to Bilas

 Yes Bilas might help

 but we would have to ask Bilas
two questions

 which underdog can cover
60/40

 which underdogs can win
40/60

 Bilas is the only one i trust

 ___

 ESPN  

 FPI: Football Power Index that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.

 is a Power Rating
that can be used to calculate Point Spread

 i believe that  ESPN  FPI
is a best power rating

 http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

 ___

 College Basketball
and College Football
share some similarities

 1.  Unknown teams

 2.  Large point spread

 3.  Lottery Moneyline opportunities

 ___
Football

 Offense
Center
O Line   Guard   Tackels
TE
WR
RB
QB
Defense
D-Line
LB
CB
Safety

 pass rushers

 Kicker
Punter

 Kick/Punt  Coverage

 Kick/Punt  Return

 it's hard to evaluate many of the players

 you can break down the team into 
UNITS

 Unit rankings

 ___

 College Football
you can get separation

 ___

 NFL
is blind to me

 for some reason
it's hard to predict

 NFL teams with leads  
decelerate
pace themselves

 ___

 NFL
first half 
for favorites ?

 ___

 in general
NBA is a money LOSER

 NFL is BS

 maybe do NFL  at 8 am sunday morning
so small amounts

 underdogs

 max favorites -3

 3 is the magic number

 -3.5   No

 ___

 consider
the NFL
as another Football Conference

 Pac12, SEC, NFL

 do Not give the NFL extra time

 lump NFL with the MAC

 ___
Underdogs

 ___
I think I have passed a milestone

 PTL

 March  16    2016

___

 Here is more

 just Write

 ___

 NHL and MLB
structure
many Same structural

 structure

 ___

 College Basketball

 take All basketball games in the season

 look at Underdogs

 plot graph

 X axis   +point spread

 Y =  F(x)

 F1
Probability of covering

 start at 40 percent and go Up

 F2
Probability of Winning the game
and winning the Moneyline

 start at 40 percent
and go Down
and eventually going to zero

 F3
Payout for Moneyline
start at +100 and go Up
F2 and F3 cross line
cross over
cross point

 ___

 question
which one is your sport

 Point spread sport   basketball

 Moneyline sport   hockey

 What is the Conversion Equation

 Lost in Translation

 Black Box

 Conversion Machine

 I position is that
Vegas' Conversion Machine
is based on faulty math equation

 Point Spread
and 
Moneyline should be calculated separate from each other
independently

 do Not use Point spread to calculate Moneyline

 do Not use Moneyline to calculate point spread

 the calculation / determination
should based on 2 main variable
Probability
and  Payout

 a third variable is
betting Balance

 do you assume  50/50  balance of Pot

 Pot size
Pot odds

 Poker concepts

 if there is an imbalance
the moneyline and point spread should be varied
the goal
should be long term
Profit Maximization

 with secondary consideration for Risk Loss  Minimization
Casino bankroll   Casino reserves

 Casino   stock market

 long term
and short term

 ___

 if we had all information
and perfect math equations

 we can predict sporting events 100%

 ___

 in reality
we do Not have this

 so you have to compromise

 separation

 volatility

 edge  /  ad

 ___

 DraftKings
should be done the night before

 doing it the day of  
messes with you
___
___

 Soccer

 3  way lines
win, lose, draw

 conversion to moneyline

 conversion to Point Spread

 conversion of 3 way lines to Point Spread
may have systemic error

 ___

 Tennis
is a moneyline sport

 conversion to Set   and  Game(s)  Point Spread
introduces systemic error

 every type of odds
should be calculated independently

 ___

 College Basketball 
check injuries

 ___

WIN
03/16/2016
12:45 PM		SOC [26113] JUVENTUS TURIN +1+117Score: JUVENTUS TURIN(2) - FC BAYERN MÜNCHEN(2)WIN

WIN
03/16/2016
12:45 PM		SOC [26125] JUVENTUS TURIN +1.5 -132Score: JUVENTUS TURIN(2) - FC BAYERN MÜNCHEN(2)WIN
LIVE UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE 16/3/2016 12:45*
ALLIANZ ARENA, MUNICH, GERMANY
* Local time based on your geographic location.

Bayern Munich
  • Robert Lewandowski 73' •
  • Thomas Müller 90' +1' •
  • Thiago Alcantara 108' •
  • Kingsley Coman 110' •
4 - 2
118'
2nd leg: 6 - 4 (Agg)

Juventus
  • • Paul Pogba 5'
  • • Juan Cuadrado 28'




3-16

 if the bet is for Regulation
then the power of the  underdog +point spread is even stronger

___

 NBA

 3-16

 NBA

 because of the high quit rate

 state of the game at the half is important

 try
first Half
first quarter
second quart

 game time injuries

 work around vegas

 ___

 NBA

 Home Court

 home team may be less lazy

 ___
NHL

 Third Period

 Over

 - No bet

 two options

 ___

 NBA

 we know that 
teams are quitting at the half

 use it
to your advantage

 or to avoid dis advantage

 many ways to look at it

 ___

 Write

 ___
Payout

 Probability

 You can vary how much you bet

 - No bet

 ___

 looking at the slate

 ask your self one question at time
then go through each game

 ___

 it's about the question

 it's about the sequence

 ___

 do several rounds

 ___

 Speak aloud

 Speak out loud

 Talk it out

 ___

 Write
Speak
Talk

 ___

 NBA

 play one quarter,
then quit,
lose by 30+ points

 ___
1. Northern Iowa (West No. 11, vs. Texas)

 2. Gonzaga (Midwest No. 11, vs. Seton Hall)

 3. Wichita State (South No. 11, vs. Arizona)

 4. Yale (West No. 12, vs. Baylor)

 5. Iona (Midwest No. 13, vs. Iowa State)

 5. South Dakota State (South No. 12, vs. Maryland)

 6. Stephen F. Austin (East No. 14, vs. West Virginia)

 7. Fresno State (Midwest No. 14, vs. Utah)

 8. The Requisite 16-Seed Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (East No. 16, vs. North Carolina)

 ___
___

 college basketball
march madness

 Breaking down the 5 vs. 12 matchup

 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14982444/5-vs-12-matchup

 ___

 Jeff Ma

 methodology is inferior to mine / ours

 wrong paradigm

 like Joe Peta

 i can be better

 i can be the best

 ___

 Jeff Ma

 http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14988381/2016-ncaa-tournament-five-burning-ncaa-tourney-bracket-questions-including-jeff-ma-best-value-bet

 ___

___
MLB  lineups  pre  2016
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14936299/mlb-projected-lineups-all-30-teams

 ___

 Pitchers

 K/9

 HR/9

 RA/9

 I believe that these three are the most important stats

 ___
from a Math perspective

 basketball is intrinsically volatile

 at every level

 in general
basketball may Not be acceptable for betting

 ___

 March Madness

 64

 32 games

 16 games x two days

 ___

 College Football
128 teams

 50+ games   every week

 ___

 Do Not spend too much time

 ___
NHL

 MLB

 are the best
all things considered

 ___

 acknowledge - what you do Not know

_____________________











_____________________



5-seed vs. 12-seed matchup

From 2008 to 2014

No. 12 seeds actually had a winning record, taking 15 of 28 matchups

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14982444/5-vs-12-matchup


Over the past 31 tournaments

12-seeds have won 36 percent of games

9 seed vs 8 seed    won  49 percent


the opening Thursday 
brought two more 12-seed wins over a 5-seed with Yale knocking off Baylor and Arkansas-Little Rock taking down Purdue.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/03/15/heres-why-no-12-seeded-teams-upset-no-5-seeds-in-the-ncaa-tournament/


_____________________

___

i think

i can do College Basketball

do Underdogs only

consider home court

in March Madness
both teams are Road teams

College Kids


___

NBA

$1 limit per day

Playoffs may more predictable

the effort level
is noticeable higher
than regular season

NBA effort is disgusting / poor / pathetic

___

pick the right audio / video
background
to increase productivity

positive mental momentum
pace
Quantum brain videos

food volume can slow you down

___

Time is money
consider time investment

some Sports  can  Not be profitable for betting

Sports are Not designed for Bettors

you can look

but consider your time investment

will you be able to make big money

___

college football
pre season research prep

Phil Steele Tables
convert to spread sheet form

just get Phil Steel and Athlon

espn spread sheets
eliminate seniors
from returning starters

___

NFL

QB - pass production

RB - run production

WR
TE

Use ESPN fantasy projection numbers
to give you an idea of the Team Offense

O-Line are lumped into
QB and RB fantasy projections

Defense just start with last season stats

___

NFL

Key offensive players

Key defensive players

___

pre season prep

___


_____________________

MLB

Effort Index

You could Watch the games
and get you eyeball

"  Effort Index "

E.I.


_____________________


MLB

stat based  Effort Index

Fielding is an indicator of Effort

Fielding

Baserunning

Doubles

Triples

What stats are available
that give us an indicator of effort

http://www.geekwire.com/2015/here-are-the-new-stats-mlb-is-measuring-from-each-play-with-statcast-real-time-tracking-technology/

new stats MLB is measuring from each play with StatCast real-time tracking technology




http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/bsr/


http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/

BASERUNNING

___

Fielding is probably the best indicator of effort

Baserunning too

___


Stat based Effort Index

Batting Average  BA

Doubles

Triples

Fielding

Baserunning

___

Fielding  =  Effort  +  Skill  Competence

at the MLB level

it is probably the best available measure of Effort



http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d


___


Sprinting to base

Fielding

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d


___

Use Fielding
to measure effort

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d

___



___


ESPN

KenPom

___

March Madness
you are getting good effort

___

NBA
1 bet a day

___


___

8  FLIP

USC was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog

Seton Hall was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog

Dayton was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog

Oregon State was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog

Texas Tech was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog

Colorado was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog

Saint Josephs was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog

Wisconsin was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog


___


6

6  vegas Favorites / ncaa Lower Rank (seed)

Win the game


9 Providence Favorite Wins -BUT does NOT cover

11 Gonzaga Fav
10 Syracuse Fav
10 VCU Fav
9 Butler Fav
9 Connecticut Fav




___


5

5  vegas Favorites / ncaa Lower Rank (seed)

Win the game  AND   COVER


11 Gonzaga Fav
10 Syracuse Fav
10 VCU Fav
9 Butler Fav
9 Connecticut Fav


___


9 Providence Favorite Wins -BUT does NOT cover

___


This is a a strange coincidence

Vegas Fix

___


NCAA tournament's 13th upset matches first-round record of '01


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/15014847/ncaa-tournament-upsets-match-first-round-record



___


Round 64

Vegas is shifty

you can't just categorically bet underdogs

___




___

16  underdogs covered

1
1
2.5
3
3.5
5.5
6
7
7
8
9
10
14.5
15.5
16.5
23.5

___

9  UPSETS (Vegas)

1
1
3
3.5
5.5
6
7
8
16.5

___

You still got to put your brain into it

Underdog bias is better

because you can MoneyLine

MoneyLine is the bonus

___

March Madness

Good effort

reduce variable

regular season worth of stats

___


college basketball

___

Round 32

second round

Depth

Favorite

___

Round 64

Underdog

___

Round 16

Underdog

___

Basketball is too volatile

___

stop eating junk

food  drink

mind
heart
soul

brain
body

___

NBA is CRAP

college basketball

i don't think it will work

___

___

 ESPN

 College Basketball

 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi
BPI: 

 The College Basketball Power Index

 on a 0-100 scale 

 50 is average

 higher is better
PVA: 

 BPI on the scale of points 

 expected point margin 
vs an average opponent 
in an average-pace game 
on a neutral court

 ___
2015-16 BPI - Kentucky Wildcats

 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/96

 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/96

 http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi?id=96&year=2016
___
ESPN   Football Power Index - 2015
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
FPI

 Football Power Index 
that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.
___

 Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season.

 http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/efficiency

 ___
ESPN

 College Basketball   BPI   PVA

 College Football Power Index   FPI

 ESPN  has the best Power Index

 and they are close to Vegas

 ___
3 stages

 (1)

 Beginner's Luck

 Major Structure / Systemic Trend

 For example

 Home Underdog

 NHL  Third Period Overs

 (2)

 Beta Testing

 Research

 Detailed

 during this period
you may Not make a profit
you could lose money

 PhD research stage

 (3)

 Prime Time

 you have perfected your methodology

 You may never reach this
I think
next season NHL hockey  2017-2016

 MLB
this season may be a hybrid season
beta / prime

 I think 2017  MLB  may be prime
NHL hockey and MLB baseball has similar methology
___

 Basketball is Volatile
just know that 

___

 Alpha And Omega

 God's Gift

 Blessing

 this is where 
it is coming from

 Von Miller  MVP 
___
Forget Basketball
limit
time
amount
number

 ___

 MLB
NHL

 ___

 Football

 too few games

 limit
time
amount
number

___


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Table

PreFlop
Flop
River

3 nodes

A.I.

Straight

Flush

Draw

High Card winner

Community Cards Win

Loss minimization on the River






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