FanMD.com: NEXT Feb 2016

http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/points/sort/shotsTotal/year/2012/position/defensemen

Regular Season - Playoffs
vs rate opposing Goalie and Defense
Power Play - Five on Five even strength

? Rebound generation

? How do we increase Rebound generation

? How do we convert rebounds into additional shots

Distance

X,Y gps coordinates

Z launch angle

trajectory

speed spin wobble flight movement deflections screens

mis-direction change of direction

I could count goals that hit the cross bar as a special category,

and group with shot on goal

SOG Iron Missed Wide Blocked

Offensive players assisting screens traffic passes

Defensive players contesting disrupting

Detailed post-game description and analysis

Every Shot

Every Goal

Every Zone Entry into your offensive zone

Every Zone Exit out of your defensive zone

Iron Post = Missed

http://sports.stackexchange.com/questions/4612/what-percent-of-shots-on-goal-hit-the-crossbar-in-hockey

http://www.sportingcharts.com/dictionary/nhl/shot-on-goal.aspx

http://icehockey.wikia.com/wiki/Shot_on_goal

http://www.dearsportsfan.com/2015/06/02/why-isnt-a-shot-that-hits-the-post-a-shot-in-hockey/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shot_on_goal_(ice_hockey)

http://sports.stackexchange.com/questions/4612/what-percent-of-shots-on-goal-hit-the-crossbar-in-hockey

Rate Goalie Saves

A+ Extraordinary Great

B standard doing your job as pro goalie

C Easy save a minor league goalie could do it

Rate Goalie failed saves

Nothing the goalie could do - impossible to save

Reasonable fail

Unacceptable Soft obvious goalie failure

_____________________

FORWARDS
Shots on goal (SOG) - Shooting percentage

http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/points/sort/shotsTotal/position/forwards

http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/points/sort/shotsTotal/year/2015/position/forwards

http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/points/sort/shotsTotal/year/2014/position/forwards

http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/points/sort/shotsTotal/year/2013/position/forwards

http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/points/sort/shotsTotal/year/2012/position/forwards

_____________________

Offensive Helmet Stickers ( college football concept )

when the team is playing Offense
Screens

Moving the puck
Moving the puck, with puck on your stick as you skate
Speed, Smooth, Controlled

Contested ?
No defense - not contested
defense is applying pressure
defense is disruptive

Given the defense,
Is the skater doing a good job ? showing extraordinary effort and skill

Context and other teams Defensive effort

this is like NBA basketball
player dribbling
player is walking running
has possession of the
from defensive zone
half court neutral zone
offensive zone

NBA analogy is great here

starting NBA defensive zone
let's say your guy gets a defensive rebound
and controls the ball

your player can jog and dribble the ball while maintaining possession personally,
or pass the ball

defensive zone
half court
offensive zone

there are No three pointers in NHL
go for High Percentage shots

NBA basketball analogy

while Steph Curry may be able to make half court shoots

in general, a NHL team needs to be in their offensive zone to score

Your Team

Time of possession in your offensive zone .

start time clock when the puck enters the offensive zone
and you have control of the puck
your player personally carries the puck in
or your player has the puck and passes it
to a team mate in the offensive zone

stop clock
when your team loses control of the puck
AND the puck goes out of the offensive zone

puck must go out of our offensive zone
And your teams does Not have control

so if your players gets the puck back
while still in the offensive zone
keep the clock going

record number of Shots and goals
while in the offensive zone

This is called one possession

Offensive Zone
you have an opportunity to score
virtually zero chance that the other team score

it's a high reward low risk zone for you

Defensive Zone
is the danger zone for you

NBA is fluid and dyanamic

NBA players must dribble
to move the ball personally
during dribble NBA player the ball goes out of the hand
it's like carrying the puck
dribbling the puck

___

For both Teams A and B

Team A
Total Time of possession in the offensive zone

per game

per period

game clock
start time and stop time

note state of the game ( the game score )

For each offensive possession,
start time
stop time of the possession
game score at that time

how enter
how exit

number of shots total
number of goals

treat each offensive possession
like a power play scenario
in terms of analysis

it's one moment in time

___

OZP Offensive Zone Possessions

" Offensive Possessions "

Team A
total Number of offensive possessions
total Time of offensive possessions

total Shots during offensive possessions
total Goals during offensive possessions

regular even strength 5-on-5

special teams
power play
short handed

Number of Shots per offensive zone possessions

Number of Goals per offensive zone possessions

OZE offensive zone efficiency

next layer
your players
their players
goalie

___

then do the Offensive Zone Possessions
for Team B

now you have everything that you need

at this time disregard ignore the neutral zone

neutral zone has little impact on shots and scoring

If there is shot or goal in the neutral zone
or defensive zone
then record it and dissect it

NBA
fast break

long pass

turnover - fast break

Goalie with assists
this happened in all star game

Goalie can score

___

Can we use the Goalie more as third defenseman

Goalie passes / shots

Can we convert the Goalie into a Skater

Can you convert a defenseman into a goalie

___

pretend it I own a NHL team
what instructions would you give the video guy

data collection

there is video and a framework with milestones
but need to flesh out the skeleton

then once you have the data
what would you tell the stats guy
data mining

(1) video guy step one
go back to video
and measure

(2) data mining and analysis

___

can we score from a sequence of plays
starting from the defensive zone ?
starting from the neutral zone

___

pinning the puck to the boards
to eat clock

___

question
should empty net situations be used more often
at the end of each period

you need great skaters and puck control

you need a Defenseman that can serve goalie functions

like a Safety in football

question
can we increase the success and efficiency of empty net situations

you need one really good defenseman with great speed
last minute of period one and period two

___

question
should we flip PK penalty kill into an offensive opportunity
how would you staff this

goalie
two great defensemen stand back
two fast attacking forwards

___

using Strategy, Scheme, and Science Physics
how can we increase Team Shooting percentage

you have to ask the right question

___

Face offs

can we increase faceoff success even more ??

___

Hits

how can we be more disruptive

passes defended

like a football defensive player

look at football defensive stats

___

question

can we have Zero penalties

can we draw more penalties

___

Skating faster -- with the puck
https://www.hockeyshot.com/v/hyperlinks/skatingfasterwithpuck.pdf

www.hockeyplayer.com

___

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/defense/sort/totalTackles/year/2015/seasontype/2

AST: Assisted tackles
TOTAL: Total tackles
COMB: Combined tackles
SACK: Total sacks
YDSL: Yards lost on sack
PD: Pass defended
INT: Passes intercepted
YDS: Intercepted returned yards
LONG: Longest interception return
TD: Interceptions returned for touchdowns
FF: Forced fumbles
REC: Fumbles recovered
TD: Fumbles returned for touchdowns

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/rebounds/sort/avgRebounds/year/2016/seasontype/2

GP: Games Played
MPG: Minutes Per Game
OFF: Offensive Rebounds
ORPG: Offensive Rebounds Per Game
DEF: Defensive Rebounds
DRPG: Defensive Rebounds Per Game
REB: Rebounds
RPG: Rebounds Per Game
RP48: Rebounds Per 48 Minutes

GP: Games Played
MPG: Minutes Per Game
STL: Steals
STPG: Steals Per Game
STP48M: Steals Per 48 Minutes
TO: Turnovers
TOPG: Turnovers Per Game
PF: Personal Fouls
ST/TO: Steals Per Turnovers
ST/PF: Steals Per Personal Fouls

Statistics: Scoring | Rebounds | Field Goals | Free-Throws | 3-Points | Assists | Steals | Blocks | Fouls | Minutes | Turnovers | Double Doubles

___

Hockey Prospectus

Baseball Prospectus

these guys want to lump everything into ONE metric

one number

this is a good exercise

but the Prospectus guys want to ignore disregard dismiss
other stats

you need to look at all the stats

look at every stat
every empirical relationship

it's like dot matrix printer

it's like light photons

increase the pixels

look at it all

also the Prospectus guys
Assume too much
then have the Hubris to think that they know everything

well if they knew everything
then they could beat Vegas
and Fantasy sports

i picked Denver
Ma picked Carolina

___

Multi Variable Analysis

Combine 2 variables

Pitcher
K/9
and HR

Pitcher
K and Ground balls

Pitcher
K and Walks

Pitcher

K and ERA

___

Goals
detailed analysis
goals and assists
angles

uses this same level of analysis

___

SKILLS

Passing
improve passing
5 dimensional passing
x y z
time speed
spin rotation

Shooting

Face off

strength and conditioning
ballet
akido
core balance
hands
feet legs
visual spatial
response time

sports science

___

think outside of the box

Penalty Kill

flip into an offensive opportunity

have 2 defensemen fall back

strong defensive defensmen

300 pinch

then have 2 very fast forwards attacking

the other team will leave their goalie exposed

___

crazy thinking
out of the box
military

___

convert the Goalie into a 6th skater

Goalie Defenseman hybrid

___

more empty net
take the Goalie out

ask the right question

ask crazy question

longer empty net at the end of the third period

do empty net at the end of the first and second period

___

Goalie = Defenseman

Defensemen = Goalie

get new skills

___

empty net

3 defensemen

2 forwards

___

think like football

___

can be get the Goalie more involved in downfield play

also reduce goalie puck stick handling errors around the net

it is currently a liability
make it an advantage

___

Science Statistics Medicine
MBA business
Sports Sports Military

___

make the depth lines
more of scoring line

strategic hits

do hits really help ?

i don't know

___

blocked shots

do it
avoid injuries

___

visors
yes

___

how do we make Power Play more Efficient
more scoring per power play possession

screening
formations
mis directions
trickery
faceoff

- do Not allow short handed goals

___

all 5 skaters playing defense

surround the goalie

___

all 5 skaters playing offense

___

empty net

6 skaters

___

Penalty Kill

convert to offensive opportunity

2 defensemen

2 forwards they need to be fast

___

you know PP power play
is compartmentalized
and treated as a separate session

well do that will all offensive zone possessions

___

on defense
the number one objective is _ No goals

- No shots

- Get the puck out of the defensive zone

at all costs

that has to be the objective

___

question

can be eliminated defensive zone time

zero percent defensive zone

100% offensive zone

do Not accept time in the defensive zone

___

defensive zone = danger zone

___

for data analysis and hockey analysis

treat every Offensive Zone Possession
like a Power Play session

and analyze it like a power play session

this compartmentalizes the fluid dynamic game into
manageable moment in time

___

treat Shots
like Goals for analysis purposes

shots
passes

track the puck
passes
moving

___

new skills

___

crazy thinking

___

crazy thinking

go in layers

prioritize

MBA MD fourth quarter

___

ask crazy questions

___

face off

___

this is an intermediate step

you gotta start somewhere

___

this is general manager
assistant coach level stuff

___

MBA

the events leading up to
offensive zone possession
session

offensive zone ENTRY
is milestone event

meaningful
bottom-up
top-down
it's a balance

meaningful
manageable
Not silly

possession is different
than Offensive Zone

possession is different
than Offensive Zone

this is an important point

it's a different axis

you watch video
and literally track every movement

this will be good to

i'm just saying

as a good first step
focus on the
Offensive Zone Possession Sessions

Offensive Zone Possession Sessions
shots
goals
no shots
no goals

your player
has possession of the puck
in defensive / neutral zone

your guy personally carries the puck in
dribbling

your guy passes
and another one of your guys receives the pass
like basketball and football

if your team loses it
but recovers it
while still in the offensive zone
keep the clock going

split the Offensive Zone
into high percentage zone
and low percentage zone

this is chemical engineering
different boundaries
different system lines

icing infractions

let's imagine
baseball
the only way to score is HR
no single, double, or triple

also no walks

then that's hockey

Runs = on base percentage + power + baserunning

no base running

no walks

Runs = Batting Average + HR power

this is the situation in hockey
there is No partial credit

Hockey
Goals = Shots x Shooting Percentage

Shots = you are swing the bat

shooting Percentage = power effectiveness

quarterly job performance evaluations

the question is
what items do you put

let's say you put team Corsi +/-
or team goals

then the player employee
says ok
what specifically want me to do
how do i do that

the boss is stuck

that is how you know
that you are looking at the wrong stats

Corsi and Fenwick
is doing the best with what you have

this is a Statistics view
Stats guys receive data

Scientists also COLLECT the Data

it's time to collect the data

offensive Forward
defensive Forward
both hybrid

offensive Defenseman
defensive Defenseman
both hybrid

top line
depth line

vs the other team
vs the other team defense
vs the other team offense

offensive zone
face off circle
blue line
red line
blue line

what do you define as the offensive zone

it's like half court offense in basketball

___

it's like BaseRunning and Fielding

Stat guys ignore it
because it was hard to measure

Stat guys pretend that it does Not exist
that it's not important

then they think they know everything

i say
look at everything

and emphasize what you do Not know
and Never forget what you do Not know

Hubris
Humilty

you can never know everything

always be afraid

that you missed something

funny
http://deadspin.com/what-i-learned-from-a-year-of-watching-sportscenter-5979510

m

http://blog.war-on-ice.com/annotated-glossary/

http://war-on-ice.com/goalietable.html

http://www.cc.gatech.edu/~stasko/papers/infovis12-hockey.pdf

you know nothing - work harder

http://www.greaterthanplusminus.com/2014/04/nhl-heat-map.html

m

http://espn.go.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/114567/strongestweakest-positions-for-sec-contenders-alabama

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14763426/nfl-agent-don-yee-says-ncaa-fixed-only-players

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense/sort/totalPointsPerGame/year/2015

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000635558/article/most-fascinating-pro-comps-for-prospects-in-2016-nfl-draft

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000635418/article/mike-mayocks-2016-nfl-draft-position-rankings

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/mock-drafts

mmmmmmmmmmmmmm

02-17-2016 College Basketball

PARLAY (13 TEAMS)( Risking: 1.00 - To Win: 4,692.81 )

LOSE

02/17/2016 03:40 PM	CBB	[704] PENN STATE +9-115Score: IOWA(75) - PENN STATE(79)	WIN
02/17/2016 04:00 PM	CBB	[705] SYRACUSE +9-105Score: SYRACUSE(58) - LOUISVILLE(72)	L
02/17/2016 04:10 PM	CBB	[707] PROVIDENCE +8.5 -110Score: PROVIDENCE(74) - XAVIER(85)	L
02/17/2016 04:10 PM	CBB	[710] TEMPLE +10-110Score: VILLANOVA(83) - TEMPLE(67)	L
02/17/2016 04:10 PM	CBB	[711] BOSTON COLLEGE +16-110Score: BOSTON COLLEGE(54) - CLEMSON(65)	WIN
02/17/2016 04:10 PM	CBB	[721] AUBURN +15.5 -110Score: AUBURN(90) - ARKANSAS(86)	WIN
02/17/2016 05:45 PM	CBB	[733] NEBRASKA +12-105Score: NEBRASKA(64) - INDIANA U(80)	L
02/17/2016 06:00 PM	CBB	[737] VIRGINIA TECH +15-115Score: VIRGINIA TECH(49) - MIAMI FLORIDA(65)	L
02/17/2016 06:00 PM	CBB	[741] GEORGIA TECH +7-105Score: GEORGIA TECH(86) - FLORIDA STATE(80)	WIN
02/17/2016 06:00 PM	CBB	[743] DUKE +7.5 -105Score: DUKE(74) - NORTH CAROLINA(73)	WIN
02/17/2016 06:00 PM	CBB	[749] ALABAMA +8-110Score: ALABAMA(76) - LSU(69)	WIN
02/17/2016 06:00 PM	CBB	[751] ARIZONA STATE +12.5 -110Score: ARIZONA STATE(61) - ARIZONA(99)	L
02/17/2016 08:00 PM	CBB	[763] COLORADO +8-110Score: COLORADO(72) - USC(79)	WIN

___

Underdog Upset Wins 02-17-2016 College Basketball

PENN STATE +385GEORGIA TECH +250DUKE +285ALABAMA +305
- No moneyline for Auburn
___

Over 6

WIN

02/17/2016
05:05 PM

NHL

vrs : Alternative Lines[79607] CHICAGO o6+210 (CHICAGO vrs NY RANGERS)Score: CHICAGO(5) - NY RANGERS(3)

WIN

02/17/2016
07:05 PM

NHL

vrs : Alternative Lines[79609] MINNESOTA o6+205 (MINNESOTA vrs CALGARY)Score: MINNESOTA(5) - CALGARY(3)

___

LOSE

02/17/2016
05:15 PM

NHL

[51] TOTAL o5.5 +110 (MONTREAL vrs COLORADO)Score: MONTREAL(2) - COLORADO(3)

LOSE

___

PuckLine

WIN

02/17/2016
05:05 PM

NHL

vrs : Alternative Lines[79573] CHICAGO -1.5 +285 (CHICAGO vrs NY RANGERS)Score: CHICAGO(5) - NY RANGERS(3)

WIN

02/17/2016
07:15 PM

NHL

[55] MINNESOTA -1.5 +220Score: MINNESOTA(5) - CALGARY(3)

WIN

LOSE

02/17/2016
05:15 PM

NHL

[52] COLORADO -1.5 +225Score: MONTREAL(2) - COLORADO(3)

LOSE

___

___

Football

2 point conversion

go for it on 4th down

trick plays

___

No more PDFs

Focus on real world results

___

KJV audio
NHL video

___

first waking hour - creative time

___

Baseball
Fielding
Zones

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/9999_04.jpg

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9999

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/9999_05.jpg

http://daigofujiwara.com/folio/img/2010/UZR_zoom_lg.jpg

___

NHL hockey

you could use the NBA grid

but maybe for Hockey - we do Not need that much resolution

divide the Offensive Zone
into meaningful Sub-Zone

the ice has many meaningful Landmarks

and the higher resolution may Not be necessary

this is an important concept / simplification

meaningful ice zone

left right center

based on landmarks

based on danger

3 levels of danger

___

Danger Zone

Landmark Zones Hockey

hockey danger zones

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/burtch-examining-scoring-chance-data/

http://war-on-ice.com/zones-three.png

http://www.nucksmisconduct.com/2014/9/8/6116711/the-curious-case-of-ryan-miller

http://www.isthisyourhomework.com/beat-every-goalie-and-have-airtight-defense/

http://section328.com/2015/11/02/what-the-hell-is-hd-sv-and-should-i-wait-for-ultra-hd-4k-a-simple-guide-for-caniacs-made-by-a-simpleton-part-3-of-value/

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nhl/58266/483/high-danger-scoring-chances

http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/12/5404348/english-premier-league-shot-statistics

http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/analytics/2014/12/14/7391391/rangers-by-the-numbers-analytics-game-28-preview-rangers-oilers

http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/analytics/2014/12/14/7391391/rangers-by-the-numbers-analytics-game-28-preview-rangers-oilers

m

___

NHL

GOALS

Detailed Analysis of Every Goal

give me the name of all the players on the ice
for both teams

period game clock

retro analysis

start with the goal scoring event
and go backwards retro
step by step sequence
keep going backwards
until you get to the beginning of the sequence
track the puck
track every event
track every player

___

google nhl slot

https://www.nhl.com/news/goaltender-matchup-inside-quick-vs-lundqvist/c-721636

http://hubpages.com/sports/Basic-Rules-NHL-Hockey-Visual-Guide

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/print?id=33685

http://nhlguides.net/goalie/

http://blackhawks.icehockeysystems.com/age-level/midgets?tid=923

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=1380127&page=33

you can use these landmarks to give relatively good x,y coordinate

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/where-do-the-nhls-best-snipers-shoot-from/

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/why-the-tampa-bay-lightning-have-struggled-to-score-this-season/

http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2011/12/8/2621193/shot-quality-and-goal-trends

___

SportsNet.Ca NHL best snipers
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/where-do-the-nhls-best-snipers-shoot-from/

NHL.com Goaltender matchup: Quick vs. Lundqvist

https://www.nhl.com/news/goaltender-matchup-inside-quick-vs-lundqvist/c-721636

___

NHL

GOALS

Detailed Analysis of Every Goal

give me the name of all the players on the ice
for both teams

period game clock

retro analysis

start with the goal scoring event
and go backwards retro
step by step sequence
keep going backwards
until you get to the beginning of the sequence
track the puck
track every event
track every player

note the danger zones
note the landmark zone

___

once you have
done a good job with Goals

+ the next step is

do ALL Shots

Missed - no contact

Miss + contact with iron

begin with Shot

(1) go backwards to beginning of sequence

possession in the defensive zone
entry into offensive zone
previous shot
previous faceof

when in doubt, just keep going backwards, more is better

(2) go forwards

go past the shot attempt
to the events after the shot attempt

rebound
another shot
faceoff
loss of possession

when in doubt just keep recording sequences
until it becomes obvious that you are done

___

Shot is more work

30 x 2 per game

60 per game

___

do all your teams games

all the opposing teams that you play

your division

your conference

the whole NHL

___

Goals

is a great starting place

___

Plan A Vegas

Plan B Vegas

# 1
Winning Bets
Making sports betting profits
Vegas

#2
DraftKings

#3
other businesses
Sports Analytics consulting

___

No more PDF for now

focus on Blog for yourself

collect great links

highlight great links

___

Video Analysis

watch the games
but jump to the Goals scored

NHL extended recap highlight

Goals scored highlight video clips

___

you gotta elevate the puck

i like shooters that can elevate the puck

upper outer quadrant

upper and outer

up and outer

upper and outer corners

to me that is the sweet spot

___

http://sportlogiq.com

___

http://sportlogiq.com

SportLogIq.com

looks great

why re-invent the wheel

that ends that line of business exploration

perhaps
my thing will be bringing it all together

using the technology

process, simplify, apply

___

i am a User / Applier / Practitioner

for technology

___

use the information for strategy

to improve Goals and Wins

___

i still like the

Goal HUMAN analysis

___

use

SportLogIq.com

use all other available stat information

then put it all together

m
___

___

OUTLIERS

in PRO sports
many stats are in the middle

there are a few outliers

so Rank is can be misleading

you need to look at the real number
compare to the average
the middle group
and look at the Outlier

outside of the outliers
the middle is about the same
parity

http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/team/_/stat/special-teams/sort/powerPlayGoalsAgainst/year/2016/seasontype/2

Power Play Goals Allowed = Penalty Kill PK% percentage x Penalties committed

keep track of Power Play OPPORTUNITIES

do Not fight

do Not commit penalties

discipline
technique

Power Play Opportunities Allowed = Penalties Committed = PP G A / ( 100 - PK% )

you need to look at
PP opportunities allowed
penalty kill
PP goals allowed

you can control PP opportunities

and penalty kill

the objective should be to decrease PP goals allowed

___

DraftKings

Goal = +3 PTS
Assist = +2 PTS
Shot on Goal = +0.5 PTS
Blocked Shot = +0.5 PTS

SOG has more value
than BS
because SOG is a leading indicator for Goals

using ESPN stats

January 31, 2016 all star game

used Feb

then in March
start using post all star game split

you may Not need to keep track of salary

my system gives you cheaper players

ESPN

Goal = +3 PTS
Assist = +2 PTS
Shot on Goal = +0.5 PTS
Blocked Shot = +0.5 PTS

Feb / post all star

step 2
go to Draft Kings website
check price and position
and last 5 games performance

C vs W is jumbled

D is easily separated

D are skaters for Fantasy

D and W/C are scored same

simplify the process

you need to eliminate teams that are Not playing

Defense / Goalies is a big deal

if the opposing Goalie shuts you out

___

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/team-comparison-per-game/sort/avgPointsOpponent

NBA defense is almost a Non factor

No defense in NBA

check outliers

No rate

absolute numbers

___

02-19-2016

m
Toronto Feb 19 Injuries

m

02-20-216
Defensemen
Goals
ESPN

m

http://www.sportstats.com/hockey/russia/khl/standings/

http://basketball.realgm.com/international/league/2/Eurocup/team/33/Herbalife-Gran-Canaria

http://www2.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/

https://www.sportsinsights.com/nhl/injuries/

SPLITS
Month
Post All Star
Position

http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/player/_/stat/points/year/2016/seasontype/2

http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/team/_/stat/scoring/year/2016/seasontype/2

m

_____________________

NBA

Point = +1 PT

Made 3pt. shot = +0.5 PTs

Rebound = +1.25 PTs

Assist = +1.5 PTs

Steal = +2 PTs

Block = +2 PTs

Hidden Value
Hidden Stats

Rebounds
Assists
Steals
Blocks

BONUS

Three Point

Double-Double = +1.5PTs

Triple-Double = +3PTs

(MAX 1 PER PLAYER: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Blocks, Steals)

___

I like Rebounds
Rebounds can be a consistent game to game stat
People tend to Not look at Rebounds

___

Question

reproducible
consistent production game to game
can it make a big impact on the total player fantasy score

Rebounds meet these criteria

a player can get a lot of rebounds
on a consistent basis

___

blocks and steals
the numbers are relatively small

___

assists decent hidden stat

___

use hidden stats to get hidden value
to find sleepers

___

? leading indicator

___

SPLITS
MONTH

FEBRUARY

Recency Bias vs Seasonal Bias

Players get better. Teams get better.
Players get worse. Teams get worse.

use Recency Bias to your advantage

___

Rebound Differential

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/rebounds-per-game/sort/avgReboundsDifference

___

Draft Kings

it's just math

_____________________

m

_____________________

MiT Black Jack Team 21

Good Shoe
Edge
Advantage

SPORTS

Favorable Factors

Home Court

Road Discount

Home Field

Home Ice

What is the magnitude of the Home Advantage

Don't assume there is a home advantage

some teams do better on the road

sometimes home is distraction disadvantage

last season 2014-2015

good road records
NY Rangers 28 road wins
Road win percentage 68
Home win percentage 61
Better win percentage on the road

Splits

_______

Home
Underdogs +Points
Plus Points
Vegas

Injuries
Injuries
Injuries

Time Lag

Vegas has to commit early.

Injuries and change
that occur after the line opens.

Time Lag.

___

Vegas

ride along with Vegas

https://www.sportsinsights.com/betting-trends/college-football-betting-trends/

sportsinsights.com

bet against the general public
bet against the public
contrarian

especially big money games
pot odds
what is the size of the pot
how much money is Vegas risking
pot size

_______

get good at
even money
underdogs
long shots

_______

1.

Vegas
Win bets
ROI return on investment
Risk vs Reward
Pay out vs Probabiliy
Underdogs +150
greater than plus +100 payout
EV even money or better

2.
maybe draft kings
mathematically harder to win draft kings
it's like a parlay

___

Soccer

3
win
lose
draw

in regulation

+1/2 is significant

+1 is big

+one goal is big

it is so hard to score in soccer

focus on plus points
home

standings
recent wins and losses
quality of wins and losses

___

European Hockey

focus on plus points
home

standings
recent wins and losses
quality of wins and losses

like Soccer

___

consider the Volatility
of the sport

every sport has a intrinsic stability / volatility

Basketball is volatility

___

in general
if there is a Vegas fix
it will favor the Underdogs

Underdog Covers, but does Not win

New England Patriots Win
But do Not cover -7.5

is an ideal situation

But depends on the money in the pot

Super Bowl
if there is a lot of money on Carolina Panthers Moneyline
But Little money on Denver,
then Vegas wants Denver to Win and Cover

it's all about pot size

"Experts" were telling people to bet MoneyLine on Carolina Panthers

Jeff Ma told people Carolina Panthers MoneyLine had good value

m

http://www.macxdvd.com/mac-dvd-video-converter-how-to/mac-the-ripper.htm

www.macxdvd.com/mac-dvd-ripper-pro/

http://cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/cs181/projects/1999-00/dmca-2k/macrovision.html

http://www.infocellar.com/DVD/macrovision.htm

http://www.geek.com/news/macrovision-hails-new-dvd-copy-protection-558353/

http://forums.afterdawn.com/threads/de-macrovision.607365/

http://comm.unc.edu/files/2011/10/macripper.pdf

M

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-wins-by-type-regulation-overtime-and-shootout/2015/

Team Wins By Type (Regulation, Overtime and Shootout)

L

become more Selective

* NHL hockey
* MLB baseball

others
College Football
Tennis
First Round of March Madness

Injuries have to be part of your Edge / Advantage

B
NBA - can you do big money bets ?

Can you do big money bets ?NBA - No

___

___

Question
Can you do big money

considering probability
considering quantum reality

considering

the intrinsic stability and predictability of the sport

the intrinsic stability and predictability of the system

consider extrinsic factors
outside factors

consider Vegas Fix
it's real
especially in the NBA

___

NBA

Atlanta at Miami 2015
Miami at Atlanta 2016

NBA is soo Dirty

___

Basketball
intrinsic Volatile

___

one advantage is
check injuries 30 minutes before the game
check for players "resting"

02-28-2016
LeBron "rests"

But remember Miami/Atlanta

the team missing all the starters
magically wins

___

Basketball
Underdogs +Points

given enough points
Underdog can cover

what if the Lakers were +99 points
that is virtually a 100%

___

NHL #1

MLB

___

College Football

___

Tennis

with "point spreads"

___

NFL is disgusting

___

NBA

- No bet

- do Not pay attention

- be very Selective

- stay small

___

even with Injuries
NBA still is so dirty

Miami / Atlanta x2

___

in general

NO
- NBA
- NFL

___

College Basketball is Wild
and Volatile
dealing with Kids
streaky
Home Court is strong

___

College Basketball
First Round of March Madness
bet Underdogs across the board
maybe moneyline

First Round only

i think this is the only good play in College Basketball

___

Basketball
intrinsic nature of the sport
Not predictable

There is Not enough defense to stabilize

___

Defense is a stabilizing factor

___

Soccer
I don't know

one thing is Soccer is
Goals are Hard to get
Goals are premium

Goals are like getting two touchdowns

Soccer

also underdog teams play for TIE

looking at Underdogs with +1 goal
is a way to take advantage of this

foreign names are a problem

___

international basketball
home underdog

___

in general
when a game is fixed
the fix favors the underdog

___

Basically
Focus on

NHL hockey

MLB baseball

these two sports have the best math properties

___

all others
either ignore
or focus on underdogs
be selective
keep it small

more of mental exercise

___

first order

big picture

___

the Holy Grail

it should be E.Z.

EASY

Chicago Blackhawks 2013

75 percent win percentage

one trick pony

first order
big picture
slice through

it should be Easy

God's Gift

Quantum
beyond time
never 100%

___

NHL

3rd Period 2+

THIRD

cost -130
so you need a 57 percentage to break even

what about the State of the game
the end of the game is a boundary condition

there are motivational factors
Winning the game

Empty Net is also in play

___

2nd period
is dependent on the state of the game

it's the middle of the game
what is the motivation ?

- No boundary conditions

- No empty net

also the cost is -130

it is difficult to predict

cost
lower payout
50/50 set point
wide variability

this makes 2nd period Not worth analysis

___

1st period

does Not depend on state of the game
because the beginning of the game is 0-0
bound

___

https://www.pickmonitor.com/t/baseball-moneyline-breakeven-chart

-150			60.00%
-140			58.33%
-130			56.52%
-120			54.55%
-110			52.38%
-105			51.22%
-100			50.00%

L

___

NBA

NFL

Vegas have sharper lines

the risk of Vegas Fix
is more likely with very Big pots

i guess there is a risk of
someone throwing a fight

tennis

fighting

___

in general

NHL hockey is Not a sport that Vegas thinks about

small fan base

even smaller bettors

___

Listen

Look for God's Gift

You need to WORK though

You need to look

Let it come to you

Don't force it

PTL

GG

___

i wish i could predict
first score
three pointer
free throw
NBA

___

NHL

1st Period

50/50

+100

0/0 start

Starters

it can be done

___

2nd
- Math is unstable

___

3rd

Boundary
Finish line
Winning

Empty Net

___

State of the Game

Boundary conditions

0,0

First period starts 0,0

Fresh Players

+100 payout

Third period ends W/L

Empty Net

consistently above 50 percent

look at set point
median

variability

Second Period is indeterminate

Constraints on the system

-100 cost

___

02-28-2016

NHL season totals
New Jersey 4.5
League average 5.3
Top team 6

Vegas divides by 3
and there is adjustment to payout

options for Vegas
1 = 3
1.5 = 4.5
2 = 6

because the small number of the total
because they divide by 3 periods
because the real score is an integer

Vegas can only do 1/2 points

Quantum
Quanta

Discrete Math
ContinuouS

this creates the problem

Vgs
either have the strike point at 2
and/or adjust the payout

for the third period

the first period has +100 payouts
why is this

but it creates a black jack situation

heisenberg uncertainty principle
go across the board

m

in this circumstance

under is gravity newtonian

over is quantum
probabilistic

m

1.5 x 3 = 4.5

therefore, this favors Over bets

there is a flaw in the Math
you say this before

1.5 = 4.5

it's a discrepancy error

also through research you can make Parlays work for you
informed Lottery with Edge

i still like first period Overs
because the +100 payout

Third Period
+Empty Net

mmmmmm

Empty Net
Over 5
Over 6
PuckLine -1.5
Over 1.5 third period

bonus goals

Parlays
do it

Parlays
do it

it's Not completely random

there is a flaw in Vegas logic about Parlays
if you have a very intelligent picker doing the Parlay
the Parlay becomes reasonably probable

Slot Machine criss cross lines

MiT Black Jack 21

Edge
Advantage

50/50 with 3/2 black jack 1.5 payout

60/40 with Even money payout

i think i may be better than Jeff Ma

Applied Math and Science
Real world applications

NBA
Over 25 points
scored by one team
in the first period

this is an error
team total divided by 4

but NBA teams tend to burst in the first quarter

exotic
fringe
deep sea fishing

Over / Under
Half
Quarter
Period
Team A
Team B

kicker McManus over

if you dig deep
you find Vegas Errors

First Order Star Wars

Math Errors

False Assumptions

https://www.boydsbets.com/money-line-conversion-chart/

Moneyline Conversion Chart

Favorites		Underdogs
Money Line	Win %	Money Line	Win %
-400	80.00%	+400	20.00%
-395	79.80%	+395	20.20%
-390	79.60%	+390	20.40%
-385	79.40%	+385	20.60%
-380	79.20%	+380	20.80%
-375	78.90%	+375	21.10%
-370	78.70%	+370	21.30%
-365	78.50%	+365	21.50%
-360	78.30%	+360	21.70%
-355	78.00%	+355	22.00%
-350	77.80%	+350	22.20%
-345	77.50%	+345	22.50%
-340	77.30%	+340	22.70%
-335	77.00%	+335	23.00%
-330	76.70%	+330	23.30%
-325	76.50%	+325	23.50%
-320	76.20%	+320	23.80%
-315	75.90%	+315	24.10%
-310	75.60%	+310	24.40%
-305	75.30%	+305	24.70%
-300	75.00%	+300	25.00%
-295	74.70%	+295	25.30%
-290	74.40%	+290	25.60%
-285	74.00%	+285	26.00%
-280	73.70%	+280	26.30%
-275	73.30%	+275	26.70%
-270	73.00%	+270	27.00%
-265	72.60%	+265	27.40%
-260	72.20%	+260	27.80%
-255	71.80%	+255	28.20%
-250	71.40%	+250	28.60%
-245	71.00%	+245	29.00%
-240	70.60%	+240	29.40%
-235	70.10%	+235	30.00%
-230	69.70%	+230	30.00%
-225	69.20%	+225	31.00%
-220	68.80%	+220	31.00%
-215	68.30%	+215	32.00%
-210	67.70%	+210	32.00%
-205	67.20%	+205	33.00%
-200	66.70%	+200	33.00%
-195	66.10%	+195	34.00%
-190	65.50%	+190	34.00%
-185	64.90%	+185	35.00%
-180	64.30%	+180	36.00%
-175	63.60%	+175	36.00%
-170	63.00%	+170	37.00%
-165	62.30%	+165	38.00%
-160	61.50%	+160	38.00%
-155	60.80%	+155	39.00%
-150	60.00%	+150	40.00%
-145	59.20%	+145	41.00%
-140	58.30%	+140	42.00%
-135	57.40%	+135	43.00%
-130	56.50%	+130	43.00%
-125	55.60%	+125	44.00%
-120	54.50%	+120	45.00%
-115	53.50%	+115	47.00%
-110	52.40%	+110	48.00%
-105	51.20%	+105	49.00%
-100	50.00%	+100	50.00%

https://www.boydsbets.com/money-line-conversion-chart/

-300	75.00%	+300	25.00%
-295	74.70%	+295	25.30%
-290	74.40%	+290	25.60%
-285	74.00%	+285	26.00%
-280	73.70%	+280	26.30%
-275	73.30%	+275	26.70%
-270	73.00%	+270	27.00%
-265	72.60%	+265	27.40%
-260	72.20%	+260	27.80%
-255	71.80%	+255	28.20%
-250	71.40%	+250	28.60%
-245	71.00%	+245	29.00%
-240	70.60%	+240	29.40%
-235	70.10%	+235	30.00%
-230	69.70%	+230	30.00%
-225	69.20%	+225	31.00%
-220	68.80%	+220	31.00%
-215	68.30%	+215	32.00%
-210	67.70%	+210	32.00%
-205	67.20%	+205	33.00%
-200	66.70%	+200	33.00%
-195	66.10%	+195	34.00%
-190	65.50%	+190	34.00%
-185	64.90%	+185	35.00%
-180	64.30%	+180	36.00%
-175	63.60%	+175	36.00%
-170	63.00%	+170	37.00%
-165	62.30%	+165	38.00%
-160	61.50%	+160	38.00%
-155	60.80%	+155	39.00%
-150	60.00%	+150	40.00%
-145	59.20%	+145	41.00%
-140	58.30%	+140	42.00%
-135	57.40%	+135	43.00%
-130	56.50%	+130	43.00%
-125	55.60%	+125	44.00%
-120	54.50%	+120	45.00%
-115	53.50%	+115	47.00%
-110	52.40%	+110	48.00%
-105	51.20%	+105	49.00%
-100	50.00%	+100	50.00%

Sports Forecasting: A Comparison of the Forecast Accuracy .

http://www.ecm.bwl.uni-muenchen.de/publikationen/pdf/sports_forec.pdf

https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=sports+forecasting&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

UNDERDOG
start with underdogs

look for reasons to like the underdogs

do the research
in the end
it's
intuition
quantum

___

step one

Underdogs +200

___

step two

50/50

40

45

does the underdog

+200 needs 33% win percentage

+150 3/2 blackjack 40 %

Road Discount
is excessive

NHL
some teams do better on the road
therefore the vegas road discount is

___

what is the game

what are the rules

define the system
make the rules

make into a binary 1/0
yes/no porblem

___
___
___

college basketball

Underdogs +10

question
can the underdog cover
yes/no

___
___
___

in general
Vegas Over-prices Favorites

therefore the odds and payout are for the Underdog

___
___
___

https://www.boydsbets.com/money-line-conversion-chart/

___
___
___

soccer

+1.5 goals

it is hard to score in soccer
and the underdog plays for Draw

also 1.5 suggests a huge favorite

+1.5 goals underdog

look at payout

reject bad payout

___
___
___

Yale

Presumptions
Assumption
Speculation

Speculative
Skeptical

Bias
Prejudice

The writers of Old Testament were
myth
liars
exaggerate

literature
fable
fiction

Yale
talks as if
she knows the mind of the writer

amazing

unfounded
she cannot back up what she says

laughable

the writer did this
the writer did that
the writer wanted to

academic bias
it is easier to be skeptical
it is easier to have the null hypothesis

ego
want to look smart

it's similar to be the Atheist position

Apathy is one thing
Agnostic is one thing
Atheism can you prove it

minor party

do you have a better answer

another problem
Yale takes the Hebrew Masoretic as the primary source

Greek Septuagint LXX is actually the better witness of ancient Hebrew OT

remember
Hellenization

70 AD

March Madness
College Basketball
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14964029/first-look-all-68-march-madness-teams-2016-ncaa-tournament

Vegas Insider http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

_____________________

March Madness

College Basketball
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14964029/first-look-all-68-march-madness-teams-2016-ncaa-tournament

Vegas Insider
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

Injuries
http://www.donbest.com/ncaab/injuries/

Bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket

Bracket Gif
http://espn.go.com/i/ncaa/basketball/ncaatourney16/ncaam_bracket_blank.gif

Bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket

NCAA tournament field
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14964029/first-look-all-68-march-madness-teams-2016-ncaa-tournament

Bracket
http://espn.go.com/i/ncaa/basketball/ncaatourney16/ncaam_bracket_blank.pdf

2016 NCAA tournament coverage
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/ncaatournament/2016-ncaa-tournament-news-march-madness

___

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +6.5
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi?id=161&year=2016

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi?id=526&year=2016

___

FanMD.com

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

NEXT Feb 2016

Moneyline Conversion Chart

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