*Math Sports 03-15-2016
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/83855124/316/MS.pdf
JOHN 17
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/83855124/316/J17.pdf
JOHN 1 : 1-18
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/83855124/316/J118.pdf
http://16mlb.blogspot.com/2016/02/arizona-diamondbacks.html
_____________________
March Madness
Vegas
Insider
Injuries
- PVA: BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.
College Basketball
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14964029/first-look-all-68-march-madness-teams-2016-ncaa-tournament
Vegas Insider
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/
Injuries
http://www.donbest.com/ncaab/injuries/
Bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket
Bracket Gif
http://espn.go.com/i/ncaa/basketball/ncaatourney16/ncaam_bracket_blank.gif
Bracket
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/bracket
NCAA tournament field
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14964029/first-look-all-68-march-madness-teams-2016-ncaa-tournament
Bracket
http://espn.go.com/i/ncaa/basketball/ncaatourney16/ncaam_bracket_blank.pdf
2016 NCAA tournament coverage
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/ncaatournament/2016-ncaa-tournament-news-march-madness
TeamRankings Power Rankings
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/predictive-by-other/
Vanderbilt BPI
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/238
Vanderbilt Schedule with BPI
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi/_/id/238/vanderbilt-commodores
http://fanmd.blogspot.com/2016/02/next-feb-2016.html_
____________________
- not sure
when in doubt go with underdog
_______________________________________________________________
*Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +5.5
- No bet
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +6.5
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi?id=161&year=2016
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi?id=526&year=2016
_____________________
Florida
Gulf Coast Eagles
BPI
48.2
PVA
-0.6
PVA:
BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs
an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.
- No
injuries
Florida
Gulf Coast Eagles is the better team
_______
Fairleigh
Dickinson Knights
BPI
36.8
PVA
-4.5
- No
injuries
_______
ESPN
Delta 3.9
Vegas
gives a little value with to Fairleigh
Dickinson Knights +5.5
- No bet
_______________________________________________________________
Vanderbilt +3.5
Espn Delta Zero
Vanderbilt +3 underdog
Wichita State
Vanderbilt
+3.5
Espn
Delta Zero
___
Vanderbilt
Commodores
BPI
79.9
PVA
11.6
___
Wichita
St Shockers
BPI
79.7
PVA
11.5
Wichita
State
|
|||||
Date
|
Pos
|
Player
|
Injury
|
Status
|
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
03/13/16
|
G
|
Landry Shamet
|
Foot
|
expected to miss 10-12 weeks
|
Injury
Landry
Shamet 8.7 last game 11/21 Non Factor
_______________________________________________________________
_____________________
Holy Cross +3 underdog
Southern
_____________________
Tulsa +3 underdog
Michigan
_____________________
_______________________________________________________________
_____________________
_______________________________________________________________
Holy
Cross ESPN DELTA 3.5
Vegas
Holy Cross +2.5
_______________________________________________________________
Tulsa
+4
03/13/16 C Emmanuel
Ezechinonso Illness out indefinitely
Nonfactor
Michigan
Michigan
Date Pos Player Injury Status
12/11/15 G Spike
Albrecht Hip out for season
03/04/16 G Caris
LeVert Knee out for season
Caris
LeVert
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/61810/caris-levert
Spike
Albrecht Non factor
Espn
Delta Zero
_______________________________________________________________
Wild Card Round 68
Recommend - No bet wild card games
_______________________________________________________________
_____________________
2016 March Madness bracket
The most likely upsets on each seed line
Here are your most likely upsets by seed line
___
No. 11 Wichita State over No. 6 Arizona
The No. 11 seeds this year are a pretty strong crop.
Gonzaga over Seton Hall will be a popular pick.
Notre Dame is a vulnerable No. 6.
Northern Iowa has already shown a penchant for picking teams off this season, having caught both Iowa State and North Carolina.
In the end though, I'm going Wichita State over Arizona. That is, if Wichita can get past Vanderbilt, which is no easy task.
___
No. 12 Little Rock over No. 5 Purdue
current bracketing procedures
that favor high-major teams
over strong mid-majors that win their leagues
The 2016 bracket
every single 5-12 game
has the potential to end with
the lower-seeded team advancing
___
No. 13 UNC-Wilmington over No. 4 Duke
Iona is going to force Iowa State to really test its depth in altitude by playing extremely up-tempo basketball in Denver.
Hawaii has the guard play and size to upset California, who was beset by scandal on Monday.
Stony Brook will have an advantage inside against Kentucky due to Jameel Warney.
___
No. 14 Stephen F. Austin over No. 3 West Virginia
___
No. 15 Cal-State Bakersfield over No. 2 Oklahoma
___
No. 16 Southern over No. 1 Oregon
___
NCAA bracket predictions 2016
Who should be your upset pick
Ken Pomeroy
kenpom.com
MIDWEST REGION
No. 12 Arkansas Little Rock > No. 5 Purdue (29 percent)
SOUTH REGION
No. 13 Hawaii > No. 4 Cal (31 percent)
EAST REGION
No. 14 Stephen F. Austin > No. 3 West Virginia (30 percent)
WEST REGION
No. 13 UNC-Wilmington vs. No. 4 Duke (28 percent)
___
Ken Pomeroy
___
Washington Post
2016 NCAA Tournament
___
The most likely upsets for the first round
creating extra possessions through turnovers and rebounds
Stephen F. Austin
No. 10 VCU over No. 7 Oregon State
No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 6 Seton Hall
___
Four Cinderellas
Stephen F. Austin
Hawaii
Arkansas Little-Rock
Virginia Commonwealth
___
grass roots
South Dakota State
Stony Brook
Arkansas-Little Rock
Florida Gulf Coast
___
Here’s why No. 12 seeded teams upset No. 5 seeds in the NCAA tournament
12 seed
___
Teams that fit the mold this year
as a 12-seed include
Arkansas-Little Rock (29-4),
Chattanooga (29-5)
South Dakota State (26-7)
___
No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 12 South Dakota State
Chance of an upset: 30.6 percent
___
No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Ya
Chance of an upset: 43.1 percent
___
No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 12 Little Rock
Chance of an upset: 32.0 percent
___
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 12 Chattanooga
Chance of an upset: 20.6 percent
___
Stephen F. Austin
North Carolina Wilmington
Hawaii
Iona
Green Bay
___
Jay Kornegay
head oddsmaker
Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook
___
Favorites
___
vulnerable top seeds
Oregon | No. 1 – West
Xavier | No. 2 – East
Utah | No. 3 – Midwest
___
The most likely upsets for the first round
___
The perfect NCAA Bracket to win your March Madness pool
Lower Seed Wins First Round
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Yale
VCU
Michigan / Tulsa
Stephen F Austin
Gonzaga
Syracuse
Neil Greenberg analyzes advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog
___
March Madness
Best value picks to win your NCAA tournament bracket pool
___
(12) YALE OVER (5) BAYLOR, WEST REGION
(14) STEPHEN F. AUSTIN OVER (3) WEST VIRGINIA, EAST REGION
(11) NORTHERN IOWA OVER (6) TEXAS, WEST REGION
___
Compile Multiple Sources
___
FiveThirtyEight has long been a valuable source of assigning probabilities and pointing out inherent flaws in the seeding process. Those statistical observations are laid out as part of the website's 2016 March Madness predictions matrix, an interactive graphic that shows how likely every team is to win in each round of the tournament. It's a fundamental starting point to filling out a decent bracket.
___
Bilas
___
Over Seeded
Iowa State
Wisconsin
Duke
___
Over Rated
Duke
Maryland
Oregon
Utah
___
Sports Illustrated
___
Upset Picks
UNC Wilmington over Duke
Temple over Iowa
___
Yale Can Beat Baylor
Northern Iowa Can Beat Texas
Hawaii Can Beat California
Arkansas-Little Rock Can Beat Purdue
Stephen F. Austin Can Beat West Virginia
Gonzaga Can Beat Seton Hall
Southern / Holy Cross Can Beat Oregon
___
2016 NCAA Tournament:
Which top seeds are on Upset Watch
These are the Goliaths that could be toppled during the first weekend of the tournament:
No. 1 (East) North Carolina:
Providence
No. 1 (West) Oregon:
Saint Joseph’s
No. 3 (East) West Virginia:
Notre Dame
No. 3 (Midwest) Utah:
Seton Hall
No. 4 (West) Duke:
UNC Wilmington presses full court, trying to force turnovers and wear down their opponent.
No. 4 (Midwest) Iowa State:
Iona
No. 5 (Midwest) Purdue:
Arkansas-Little Rock
who went 29-4 with wins at Tulsa and at SDSU, plays a Pack-Line defense, which is one of the best ways to keep big men from getting easy touches in the paint.
No. 6 (West) Texas:
Northern Iowa is really, really good and potentially under-seeded
No. 6 (South) Arizona:
That said, both Vanderbilt and Wichita State are good enough to make it out of the first weekend. This is a tough draw for the Wildcats.
___
EAST
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2016/03/13/2016-ncaa-tournament-east-region-instant-analysis/
UPSETS THAT CAN HAPPEN
No. 14 Stephen F. Austin over No. 3 West Virginia: The Lumberjacks are 58-1 in Southland play the last two seasons and won a game in the tournament two years ago against a VCU team that ran a similar press to WVU. When two teams with similar strengths go head-to-head, I usually bet on who does it better, but SFA is really, really good.
No. 9 Providence to the Sweet 16: UNC has been much, much improved defensively, but they still don’t have the ideal personnel to guard ball-screens. Providence loves to run ball-screens for Kris Dunn, and there’s an argument to be made that the Friars will have the two best players on the floor with Dunn and Ben Bentil.
FEEL LIKE GAMBLING?: No. 2 Xavier to the Final Four
___
SOUTH
FINAL FOUR SLEEPER: Vanderbilt/Wichita State winner
UPSETS THAT CAN HAPPEN
No. 12 South Dakota State over No. 5 Maryland: I’m just not sold on Maryland being able to turn this thing around. The pieces don’t fit. SDSU is no pushover. They have a really good back court and a big man in Mike Daum that is as productive on a per-minute basis as anyone in the country. Don’t let Max Landis get it going from three.
No. 13 Hawai’i over No. 4 Cal: Hawai’i is going to have a long way to travel to get to Spokane, but once they get there they’ll give Cal some trouble Stefan Jankovic is a matchup problem up front with Eran Ganot has a couple guards that can really lock up in his back court. If good Jabari Brown shows up, however, how does Hawai’i stop him?
No. 7 Iowa over No. 2 Villanova: I have zero faith in Iowa being able to win this game — get to this game? — but on paper, they really do matchup well with the Wildcats. If he can handle Josh Hart’s physicality, Jarrod Uthoff is a tough cover for Hart, while Villanova’s guards and Iowa’s guards are similarly limited.
FEEL LIKE GAMBLING?: Maryland-Cal winner in the Final Four
___
Mid West
FINAL FOUR SLEEPER: No. 3 Utah
UPSETS THAT CAN HAPPEN
No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 6 Seton Hall: There’s two reasons for this: Will Seton Hall play with the same intensity they did in New York? And how will the Pirates deal with a front line that includes Kyle Wiltjer and Domas Sabonis?
No. 12 Little Rock over No. 5 Purdue: Little Rock is really, really good. They won at San Diego State and won at Tulsa during non-conference. They also run a pack-line defense, which will help limit the impact of Purdue’s big men.
No. 13 Iona over No. 4 Iowa State: How good is this game going to be? First to 120 points wins. Iowa State will have the best player on the floor in Georges Niang, but A.J. English is a stud and the Gaels are dangerous when they get it going offensively.
FEEL LIKE GAMBLING?: No. 6 Seton Hall to the Sweet 16
___
WEST
http://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2016/03/13/2016-ncaa-tournament-west-region-instant-analysis/
FINAL FOUR SLEEPER: Northern Iowa
UPSETS THAT CAN HAPPEN
No. 13 UNC Wilmington over No. 4 Duke: This is going to be a tough matchup for the Blue Devils. UNCW plays like VCU and West Virginia. They press for 40 minutes and continually throw bodies at you. They never tire. Duke? They basically have six guys, and the only one that’s a point guard Derryck Thornton. Tired legs and turnovers really plays into UNCW’s hands.
No. 8 Saint Joseph’s over No. 1 Oregon: My colleague Raphielle Johnson mentioned this on the latest podcast, but St. Joe’s matches up really well with Oregon. They have a pair of versatile defenders in Isaiah Miles and Deandre Bembry that will take away from of Oregon’s small-ball lineup advantage.
No. 11 Northern Iowa over No. 6 Texas: Do I need to explain it more than what I wrote above? UNI is really good.
No. 11 Northern Iowa over No. 3 Texas A&M: As good as Texas A&M is, I think they’re somewhat limited by a back court of Alex Caruso and Anthony Collins. Those guys aren’t shooters, and you need shooters when your front line is your strength.
FEEL LIKE GAMBLING?: Saint Joseph’s to the Elite 8
_____________________
_____________________
Good Stuff
_____________________
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/sort/netPointsVsAverage
PVA: BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.
NCAA college Basketball
Round 64
in general
Vegas point spreads are close to PVA differential
PVA favorite - PVA underdog = Vegas Point Spread + Bonus points for underdog
Keep in mind
it's Neutral court
- No home court advantage
with respect to Visual-Spatial 3 D
you can still have crowd noise
Underdogs will give Super Max effort in Game One
Favorites are pacing / looking ahead
If you were betting big money
you would look at Injuries
Impact of Injuries
Power Ratings TeamRankings and KenPom
read all the ESPN analysis
Bilas
Watch games
But i am only betting a dollar
___
know that
Vegas point spread is close to ESPN PVA differential
No home court
Underdog Super Max effort
Favorite Pacing / Look ahead
Power Ratings and Seedings are skewed
Whole Season vs Recent Real Time Power Rating
Time Lag
Time Scaling
Seasonal bias
Recency bias
you want recency bias
1 game
5 games
10 games
recent games
___
focus on Underdogs
who is coming in Hot / Cold
Hot / Cold
___
Good Stuff
_____________________
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/sort/netPointsVsAverage
PVA: BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.
NCAA college Basketball
Round 64
in general
Vegas point spreads are close to PVA differential
PVA favorite - PVA underdog = Vegas Point Spread + Bonus points for underdog
Keep in mind
it's Neutral court
- No home court advantage
with respect to Visual-Spatial 3 D
you can still have crowd noise
Underdogs will give Super Max effort in Game One
Favorites are pacing / looking ahead
If you were betting big money
you would look at Injuries
Impact of Injuries
Power Ratings TeamRankings and KenPom
read all the ESPN analysis
Bilas
Watch games
But i am only betting a dollar
___
know that
Vegas point spread is close to ESPN PVA differential
No home court
Underdog Super Max effort
Favorite Pacing / Look ahead
Power Ratings and Seedings are skewed
Whole Season vs Recent Real Time Power Rating
Time Lag
Time Scaling
Seasonal bias
Recency bias
you want recency bias
1 game
5 games
10 games
recent games
___
focus on Underdogs
who is coming in Hot / Cold
Hot / Cold
___
_____________________
Kentucky
BPI Schedule
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats
BPI Resume
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/96
BPI
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi
The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a team rating system that accounts for the final score, pace of play, site, strength of opponent and absence of key players in every Division I men's game. BPI can be used to measure both how well a team has performed (going far beyond just wins and losses) and how powerful it is likely to be going forward.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi
BPI: The College Basketball Power Index, on a 0-100 scale (50 is average; higher is better).
BPI RK: Rank of overall BPI among Division I teams.
PVA: BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.
UNC 90.3 BPI
Cent Conn St 11.9 BPI
Note the range of BPI 0-100
50 is average
UMass rank 175
50.1 BPI
0.0 PVA
( 175 x 2 = 350 )
Note range of PVA
UNC 18.7 PVA
Cent Conn St -16.8 PVA
BPI 50 = Zero PVA
PVA range +18.7 / -16.8
Correlate BPI PVA and Rank
Rank BPI PVA
1 UNC 90.3 18.7
11 Duke 84.5 14.3
20 Maryland 81.7 12.6
63 Georgetown 69.9 7.1
Benchmarks
_______
College Basketball
Primary Protocol
Underdog +10 points
Question
Can the Underdog cover ?
For Both Teams
look at the ESPN schedule w/ BPI
look at performance against top teams
look at recent performance
___
+10 points
i think 10 is a magic number
easy for both teams to calculate
you can increase / decrease the point spread data filter
___
6 +200
8 +300
College Basketball is a Point Spread game
i think you can get Value by betting the Moneyline
going from point spread to moneyline
the conversion equation is incorrect
6 to 8
that is just a two point differential
and does Not merit a increased payout from +200 to +300
the moneyline payout increase out of proportion
to the incremental point spread
2 points gives you an extra +$100
that is an excessive payout
Point Spread sports
the conversion of Point Spread to Moneyline
used by Vegas is an erroneous equation
and is Not based on real world probabilites
i would propose
6 +200
8 +225
see what i mean
___
Second Protocol
look at the Moneylines
you want +200 and better
Question
Can the Underdog win 50/50 ?
40/60 ?
___
You gotta look at moneylines
___
There is a flaw in Vegas' Moneyline calculation
the higher moneylines do Not reflect real world probabilities
remember Von Miller SB MVP
___
right now
at the end of the regular season
you have more data
___
ESPN BPI PVA
correlates very well with Vegas
Vegas Point Spread
= PVA favorite - PVA underdogs
+ bonus to underdog
bonus points
adjustment (Vegas)
i think ESPN power rating BPI PVA
is the best
and Vegas uses ESPN numbers
ESPN is the one to use
i also noted that TeamRankings.com is close to Vegas
___
Power Ratings
ESPN BPI PVA
have a seasonal bias
and may Not reflect
true real time
power ratings
to predict the next game
recent up/down is diluted
let's say that a team starts slow
but gets better
and the last 5 games
is very hot
and beating the best teams
Power Ratings will have a Lag
This is where you can get an Edge
___
Edge / Advantage
Vegas likes Underdogs and gives them extra points
Power Ratings is used by Vegas
Power Ratings may Not reflect most recent up/down
Consider Home Court
Home Court is Big in college
Also consider
College Kids are unpredictable
___
March Madness
Underdog Motivation is Round One is an Advantage
300
Favorites are looking ahead and pacing
two different styles of play
Nobody has Home Court Advantage
Visual Spatial
Crowd
Round 64
Vegas likes Underdogs
and want Upsets
to Wreck Brackets and Parlays
___
NiT and other playoffs
Motivation is questionable
remember Kentucky being knocked out the first game of NiT
a few years ago
___
March Madness
Round 64
is a special circumstance
___
during the regular season
you will Not know motivation
___
Large Point Spreads
Recent Performance
Small Bets
Equi Betting
Equal size betting
this how you do risk management
___
Warren Buffett
uses Safety Margin
and Long term
buy low
sell high
to neutralize Noise
___
Wow
Genius
PTL
___
College Basketball has opportunities
but you need to know the system characteristics
___
NBA is Insanity
at this point in the season
teams are quitting and getting blown out by 20+ points
First Quarter Strong Underdog
___
NBA pro players
do Not care about the home crowd
___
College
players need to face the fans every day
___
___
college basketball
next level
INJURIES
Impact of Injuries
___
Point of diminishing returns
Watch games
College Kids = Volatile
Additional investment in time
will likely not give you improved results
every sport has it's limitations
what if you could talk to Bilas
Yes Bilas might help
but we would have to ask Bilas
two questions
which underdog can cover
60/40
which underdogs can win
40/60
Bilas is the only one i trust
___
ESPN
FPI: Football Power Index that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.
is a Power Rating
that can be used to calculate Point Spread
i believe that ESPN FPI
is a best power rating
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
___
College Basketball
and College Football
share some similarities
1. Unknown teams
2. Large point spread
3. Lottery Moneyline opportunities
___
Football
Offense
Center
O Line Guard Tackels
TE
WR
RB
QB
Defense
D-Line
LB
CB
Safety
pass rushers
Kicker
Punter
Kick/Punt Coverage
Kick/Punt Return
it's hard to evaluate many of the players
you can break down the team into
UNITS
Unit rankings
___
College Football
you can get separation
___
NFL
is blind to me
for some reason
it's hard to predict
NFL teams with leads
decelerate
pace themselves
___
NFL
first half
for favorites ?
___
in general
NBA is a money LOSER
NFL is BS
maybe do NFL at 8 am sunday morning
so small amounts
underdogs
max favorites -3
3 is the magic number
-3.5 No
___
consider
the NFL
as another Football Conference
Pac12, SEC, NFL
do Not give the NFL extra time
lump NFL with the MAC
___
Underdogs
___
I think I have passed a milestone
PTL
March 16 2016
___
Here is more
just Write
___
NHL and MLB
structure
many Same structural
structure
___
College Basketball
take All basketball games in the season
look at Underdogs
plot graph
X axis +point spread
Y = F(x)
F1
Probability of covering
start at 40 percent and go Up
F2
Probability of Winning the game
and winning the Moneyline
start at 40 percent
and go Down
and eventually going to zero
F3
Payout for Moneyline
start at +100 and go Up
F2 and F3 cross line
cross over
cross point
___
question
which one is your sport
Point spread sport basketball
Moneyline sport hockey
What is the Conversion Equation
Lost in Translation
Black Box
Conversion Machine
I position is that
Vegas' Conversion Machine
is based on faulty math equation
Point Spread
and
Moneyline should be calculated separate from each other
independently
do Not use Point spread to calculate Moneyline
do Not use Moneyline to calculate point spread
the calculation / determination
should based on 2 main variable
Probability
and Payout
a third variable is
betting Balance
do you assume 50/50 balance of Pot
Pot size
Pot odds
Poker concepts
if there is an imbalance
the moneyline and point spread should be varied
the goal
should be long term
Profit Maximization
with secondary consideration for Risk Loss Minimization
Casino bankroll Casino reserves
Casino stock market
long term
and short term
___
if we had all information
and perfect math equations
we can predict sporting events 100%
___
in reality
we do Not have this
so you have to compromise
separation
volatility
edge / ad
___
DraftKings
should be done the night before
doing it the day of
messes with you
___
___
Soccer
3 way lines
win, lose, draw
conversion to moneyline
conversion to Point Spread
conversion of 3 way lines to Point Spread
may have systemic error
___
Tennis
is a moneyline sport
conversion to Set and Game(s) Point Spread
introduces systemic error
every type of odds
should be calculated independently
___
College Basketball
check injuries
___
3-16
if the bet is for Regulation
then the power of the underdog +point spread is even stronger
___
NBA
3-16
NBA
because of the high quit rate
state of the game at the half is important
try
first Half
first quarter
second quart
game time injuries
work around vegas
___
NBA
Home Court
home team may be less lazy
___
NHL
Third Period
Over
- No bet
two options
___
NBA
we know that
teams are quitting at the half
use it
to your advantage
or to avoid dis advantage
many ways to look at it
___
Write
___
Payout
Probability
You can vary how much you bet
- No bet
___
looking at the slate
ask your self one question at time
then go through each game
___
it's about the question
it's about the sequence
___
do several rounds
___
Speak aloud
Speak out loud
Talk it out
___
Write
Speak
Talk
___
NBA
play one quarter,
then quit,
lose by 30+ points
___
1. Northern Iowa (West No. 11, vs. Texas)
2. Gonzaga (Midwest No. 11, vs. Seton Hall)
3. Wichita State (South No. 11, vs. Arizona)
4. Yale (West No. 12, vs. Baylor)
5. Iona (Midwest No. 13, vs. Iowa State)
5. South Dakota State (South No. 12, vs. Maryland)
6. Stephen F. Austin (East No. 14, vs. West Virginia)
7. Fresno State (Midwest No. 14, vs. Utah)
8. The Requisite 16-Seed Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (East No. 16, vs. North Carolina)
___
___
college basketball
march madness
Breaking down the 5 vs. 12 matchup
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14982444/5-vs-12-matchup
___
Jeff Ma
methodology is inferior to mine / ours
wrong paradigm
like Joe Peta
i can be better
i can be the best
___
Jeff Ma
http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14988381/2016-ncaa-tournament-five-burning-ncaa-tourney-bracket-questions-including-jeff-ma-best-value-bet
___
___
MLB lineups pre 2016
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14936299/mlb-projected-lineups-all-30-teams
___
Pitchers
K/9
HR/9
RA/9
I believe that these three are the most important stats
___
from a Math perspective
basketball is intrinsically volatile
at every level
in general
basketball may Not be acceptable for betting
___
March Madness
64
32 games
16 games x two days
___
College Football
128 teams
50+ games every week
___
Do Not spend too much time
___
NHL
MLB
are the best
all things considered
___
acknowledge - what you do Not know
Kentucky
BPI Schedule
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats
BPI Resume
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/96
BPI
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi
The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a team rating system that accounts for the final score, pace of play, site, strength of opponent and absence of key players in every Division I men's game. BPI can be used to measure both how well a team has performed (going far beyond just wins and losses) and how powerful it is likely to be going forward.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi
BPI: The College Basketball Power Index, on a 0-100 scale (50 is average; higher is better).
BPI RK: Rank of overall BPI among Division I teams.
PVA: BPI on the scale of points (same ordering); expected point margin vs an average opponent in an average-pace game on a neutral court.
UNC 90.3 BPI
Cent Conn St 11.9 BPI
Note the range of BPI 0-100
50 is average
UMass rank 175
50.1 BPI
0.0 PVA
( 175 x 2 = 350 )
Note range of PVA
UNC 18.7 PVA
Cent Conn St -16.8 PVA
BPI 50 = Zero PVA
PVA range +18.7 / -16.8
Correlate BPI PVA and Rank
Rank BPI PVA
1 UNC 90.3 18.7
11 Duke 84.5 14.3
20 Maryland 81.7 12.6
63 Georgetown 69.9 7.1
Benchmarks
_______
College Basketball
Primary Protocol
Underdog +10 points
Question
Can the Underdog cover ?
For Both Teams
look at the ESPN schedule w/ BPI
look at performance against top teams
look at recent performance
___
+10 points
i think 10 is a magic number
easy for both teams to calculate
you can increase / decrease the point spread data filter
___
6 +200
8 +300
College Basketball is a Point Spread game
i think you can get Value by betting the Moneyline
going from point spread to moneyline
the conversion equation is incorrect
6 to 8
that is just a two point differential
and does Not merit a increased payout from +200 to +300
the moneyline payout increase out of proportion
to the incremental point spread
2 points gives you an extra +$100
that is an excessive payout
Point Spread sports
the conversion of Point Spread to Moneyline
used by Vegas is an erroneous equation
and is Not based on real world probabilites
i would propose
6 +200
8 +225
see what i mean
___
Second Protocol
look at the Moneylines
you want +200 and better
Question
Can the Underdog win 50/50 ?
40/60 ?
___
You gotta look at moneylines
___
There is a flaw in Vegas' Moneyline calculation
the higher moneylines do Not reflect real world probabilities
remember Von Miller SB MVP
___
right now
at the end of the regular season
you have more data
___
ESPN BPI PVA
correlates very well with Vegas
Vegas Point Spread
= PVA favorite - PVA underdogs
+ bonus to underdog
bonus points
adjustment (Vegas)
i think ESPN power rating BPI PVA
is the best
and Vegas uses ESPN numbers
ESPN is the one to use
i also noted that TeamRankings.com is close to Vegas
___
Power Ratings
ESPN BPI PVA
have a seasonal bias
and may Not reflect
true real time
power ratings
to predict the next game
recent up/down is diluted
let's say that a team starts slow
but gets better
and the last 5 games
is very hot
and beating the best teams
Power Ratings will have a Lag
This is where you can get an Edge
___
Edge / Advantage
Vegas likes Underdogs and gives them extra points
Power Ratings is used by Vegas
Power Ratings may Not reflect most recent up/down
Consider Home Court
Home Court is Big in college
Also consider
College Kids are unpredictable
___
March Madness
Underdog Motivation is Round One is an Advantage
300
Favorites are looking ahead and pacing
two different styles of play
Nobody has Home Court Advantage
Visual Spatial
Crowd
Round 64
Vegas likes Underdogs
and want Upsets
to Wreck Brackets and Parlays
___
NiT and other playoffs
Motivation is questionable
remember Kentucky being knocked out the first game of NiT
a few years ago
___
March Madness
Round 64
is a special circumstance
___
during the regular season
you will Not know motivation
___
Large Point Spreads
Recent Performance
Small Bets
Equi Betting
Equal size betting
this how you do risk management
___
Warren Buffett
uses Safety Margin
and Long term
buy low
sell high
to neutralize Noise
___
Wow
Genius
PTL
___
College Basketball has opportunities
but you need to know the system characteristics
___
NBA is Insanity
at this point in the season
teams are quitting and getting blown out by 20+ points
First Quarter Strong Underdog
___
NBA pro players
do Not care about the home crowd
___
College
players need to face the fans every day
___
___
college basketball
next level
INJURIES
Impact of Injuries
___
Point of diminishing returns
Watch games
College Kids = Volatile
Additional investment in time
will likely not give you improved results
every sport has it's limitations
what if you could talk to Bilas
Yes Bilas might help
but we would have to ask Bilas
two questions
which underdog can cover
60/40
which underdogs can win
40/60
Bilas is the only one i trust
___
ESPN
FPI: Football Power Index that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.
is a Power Rating
that can be used to calculate Point Spread
i believe that ESPN FPI
is a best power rating
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
___
College Basketball
and College Football
share some similarities
1. Unknown teams
2. Large point spread
3. Lottery Moneyline opportunities
___
Football
Offense
Center
O Line Guard Tackels
TE
WR
RB
QB
Defense
D-Line
LB
CB
Safety
pass rushers
Kicker
Punter
Kick/Punt Coverage
Kick/Punt Return
it's hard to evaluate many of the players
you can break down the team into
UNITS
Unit rankings
___
College Football
you can get separation
___
NFL
is blind to me
for some reason
it's hard to predict
NFL teams with leads
decelerate
pace themselves
___
NFL
first half
for favorites ?
___
in general
NBA is a money LOSER
NFL is BS
maybe do NFL at 8 am sunday morning
so small amounts
underdogs
max favorites -3
3 is the magic number
-3.5 No
___
consider
the NFL
as another Football Conference
Pac12, SEC, NFL
do Not give the NFL extra time
lump NFL with the MAC
___
Underdogs
___
I think I have passed a milestone
PTL
March 16 2016
___
Here is more
just Write
___
NHL and MLB
structure
many Same structural
structure
___
College Basketball
take All basketball games in the season
look at Underdogs
plot graph
X axis +point spread
Y = F(x)
F1
Probability of covering
start at 40 percent and go Up
F2
Probability of Winning the game
and winning the Moneyline
start at 40 percent
and go Down
and eventually going to zero
F3
Payout for Moneyline
start at +100 and go Up
F2 and F3 cross line
cross over
cross point
___
question
which one is your sport
Point spread sport basketball
Moneyline sport hockey
What is the Conversion Equation
Lost in Translation
Black Box
Conversion Machine
I position is that
Vegas' Conversion Machine
is based on faulty math equation
Point Spread
and
Moneyline should be calculated separate from each other
independently
do Not use Point spread to calculate Moneyline
do Not use Moneyline to calculate point spread
the calculation / determination
should based on 2 main variable
Probability
and Payout
a third variable is
betting Balance
do you assume 50/50 balance of Pot
Pot size
Pot odds
Poker concepts
if there is an imbalance
the moneyline and point spread should be varied
the goal
should be long term
Profit Maximization
with secondary consideration for Risk Loss Minimization
Casino bankroll Casino reserves
Casino stock market
long term
and short term
___
if we had all information
and perfect math equations
we can predict sporting events 100%
___
in reality
we do Not have this
so you have to compromise
separation
volatility
edge / ad
___
DraftKings
should be done the night before
doing it the day of
messes with you
___
___
Soccer
3 way lines
win, lose, draw
conversion to moneyline
conversion to Point Spread
conversion of 3 way lines to Point Spread
may have systemic error
___
Tennis
is a moneyline sport
conversion to Set and Game(s) Point Spread
introduces systemic error
every type of odds
should be calculated independently
___
College Basketball
check injuries
___
WIN |
03/16/2016 12:45 PM | SOC | [26113] JUVENTUS TURIN +1+117Score: JUVENTUS TURIN(2) - FC BAYERN MÃœNCHEN(2) | WIN |
WIN |
03/16/2016 12:45 PM | SOC | [26125] JUVENTUS TURIN +1.5 -132Score: JUVENTUS TURIN(2) - FC BAYERN MÃœNCHEN(2) | WIN |
3-16
if the bet is for Regulation
then the power of the underdog +point spread is even stronger
___
NBA
3-16
NBA
because of the high quit rate
state of the game at the half is important
try
first Half
first quarter
second quart
game time injuries
work around vegas
___
NBA
Home Court
home team may be less lazy
___
NHL
Third Period
Over
- No bet
two options
___
NBA
we know that
teams are quitting at the half
use it
to your advantage
or to avoid dis advantage
many ways to look at it
___
Write
___
Payout
Probability
You can vary how much you bet
- No bet
___
looking at the slate
ask your self one question at time
then go through each game
___
it's about the question
it's about the sequence
___
do several rounds
___
Speak aloud
Speak out loud
Talk it out
___
Write
Speak
Talk
___
NBA
play one quarter,
then quit,
lose by 30+ points
___
1. Northern Iowa (West No. 11, vs. Texas)
2. Gonzaga (Midwest No. 11, vs. Seton Hall)
3. Wichita State (South No. 11, vs. Arizona)
4. Yale (West No. 12, vs. Baylor)
5. Iona (Midwest No. 13, vs. Iowa State)
5. South Dakota State (South No. 12, vs. Maryland)
6. Stephen F. Austin (East No. 14, vs. West Virginia)
7. Fresno State (Midwest No. 14, vs. Utah)
8. The Requisite 16-Seed Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (East No. 16, vs. North Carolina)
___
___
college basketball
march madness
Breaking down the 5 vs. 12 matchup
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14982444/5-vs-12-matchup
___
Jeff Ma
methodology is inferior to mine / ours
wrong paradigm
like Joe Peta
i can be better
i can be the best
___
Jeff Ma
http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14988381/2016-ncaa-tournament-five-burning-ncaa-tourney-bracket-questions-including-jeff-ma-best-value-bet
___
___
MLB lineups pre 2016
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14936299/mlb-projected-lineups-all-30-teams
___
Pitchers
K/9
HR/9
RA/9
I believe that these three are the most important stats
___
from a Math perspective
basketball is intrinsically volatile
at every level
in general
basketball may Not be acceptable for betting
___
March Madness
64
32 games
16 games x two days
___
College Football
128 teams
50+ games every week
___
Do Not spend too much time
___
NHL
MLB
are the best
all things considered
___
acknowledge - what you do Not know
_____________________
_____________________
5-seed vs. 12-seed matchup
From 2008 to 2014
No. 12 seeds actually had a winning record, taking 15 of 28 matchups
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14982444/5-vs-12-matchup
Over the past 31 tournaments
12-seeds have won 36 percent of games
9 seed vs 8 seed won 49 percent
the opening Thursday
brought two more 12-seed wins over a 5-seed with Yale knocking off Baylor and Arkansas-Little Rock taking down Purdue.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2016/03/15/heres-why-no-12-seeded-teams-upset-no-5-seeds-in-the-ncaa-tournament/
_____________________
___
i think
i can do College Basketball
do Underdogs only
consider home court
in March Madness
both teams are Road teams
College Kids
___
NBA
$1 limit per day
Playoffs may more predictable
the effort level
is noticeable higher
than regular season
NBA effort is disgusting / poor / pathetic
___
pick the right audio / video
background
to increase productivity
positive mental momentum
pace
Quantum brain videos
food volume can slow you down
___
Time is money
consider time investment
some Sports can Not be profitable for betting
Sports are Not designed for Bettors
you can look
but consider your time investment
will you be able to make big money
___
college football
pre season research prep
Phil Steele Tables
convert to spread sheet form
just get Phil Steel and Athlon
espn spread sheets
eliminate seniors
from returning starters
___
NFL
QB - pass production
RB - run production
WR
TE
Use ESPN fantasy projection numbers
to give you an idea of the Team Offense
O-Line are lumped into
QB and RB fantasy projections
Defense just start with last season stats
___
NFL
Key offensive players
Key defensive players
___
pre season prep
___
_____________________
MLB
Effort Index
You could Watch the games
and get you eyeball
" Effort Index "
E.I.
_____________________
MLB
stat based Effort Index
Fielding is an indicator of Effort
Fielding
Baserunning
Doubles
Triples
What stats are available
that give us an indicator of effort
http://www.geekwire.com/2015/here-are-the-new-stats-mlb-is-measuring-from-each-play-with-statcast-real-time-tracking-technology/
new stats MLB is measuring from each play with StatCast real-time tracking technology
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/bsr/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/
BASERUNNING
___
Fielding is probably the best indicator of effort
Baserunning too
___
Stat based Effort Index
Batting Average BA
Doubles
Triples
Fielding
Baserunning
___
Fielding = Effort + Skill Competence
at the MLB level
it is probably the best available measure of Effort
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d
___
Sprinting to base
Fielding
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d
___
Use Fielding
to measure effort
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d
___
___
ESPN
KenPom
___
March Madness
you are getting good effort
___
NBA
1 bet a day
___
___
8 FLIP
USC was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Seton Hall was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Dayton was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Oregon State was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Texas Tech was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Colorado was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Saint Josephs was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Wisconsin was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
___
6
6 vegas Favorites / ncaa Lower Rank (seed)
Win the game
9 Providence Favorite Wins -BUT does NOT cover
11 Gonzaga Fav
10 Syracuse Fav
10 VCU Fav
9 Butler Fav
9 Connecticut Fav
___
5
5 vegas Favorites / ncaa Lower Rank (seed)
Win the game AND COVER
11 Gonzaga Fav
10 Syracuse Fav
10 VCU Fav
9 Butler Fav
9 Connecticut Fav
___
9 Providence Favorite Wins -BUT does NOT cover
___
This is a a strange coincidence
Vegas Fix
___
NCAA tournament's 13th upset matches first-round record of '01
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/15014847/ncaa-tournament-upsets-match-first-round-record
___
Round 64
Vegas is shifty
you can't just categorically bet underdogs
___
___
16 underdogs covered
1
1
2.5
3
3.5
5.5
6
7
7
8
9
10
14.5
15.5
16.5
23.5
___
9 UPSETS (Vegas)
1
1
3
3.5
5.5
6
7
8
16.5
___
You still got to put your brain into it
Underdog bias is better
because you can MoneyLine
MoneyLine is the bonus
___
March Madness
Good effort
reduce variable
regular season worth of stats
___
college basketball
___
Round 32
second round
Depth
Favorite
___
Round 64
Underdog
___
Round 16
Underdog
___
Basketball is too volatile
___
stop eating junk
food drink
mind
heart
soul
brain
body
___
NBA is CRAP
college basketball
i don't think it will work
___
___i think
i can do College Basketball
do Underdogs only
consider home court
in March Madness
both teams are Road teams
College Kids
___
NBA
$1 limit per day
Playoffs may more predictable
the effort level
is noticeable higher
than regular season
NBA effort is disgusting / poor / pathetic
___
pick the right audio / video
background
to increase productivity
positive mental momentum
pace
Quantum brain videos
food volume can slow you down
___
Time is money
consider time investment
some Sports can Not be profitable for betting
Sports are Not designed for Bettors
you can look
but consider your time investment
will you be able to make big money
___
college football
pre season research prep
Phil Steele Tables
convert to spread sheet form
just get Phil Steel and Athlon
espn spread sheets
eliminate seniors
from returning starters
___
NFL
QB - pass production
RB - run production
WR
TE
Use ESPN fantasy projection numbers
to give you an idea of the Team Offense
O-Line are lumped into
QB and RB fantasy projections
Defense just start with last season stats
___
NFL
Key offensive players
Key defensive players
___
pre season prep
___
_____________________
MLB
Effort Index
You could Watch the games
and get you eyeball
" Effort Index "
E.I.
_____________________
MLB
stat based Effort Index
Fielding is an indicator of Effort
Fielding
Baserunning
Doubles
Triples
What stats are available
that give us an indicator of effort
http://www.geekwire.com/2015/here-are-the-new-stats-mlb-is-measuring-from-each-play-with-statcast-real-time-tracking-technology/
new stats MLB is measuring from each play with StatCast real-time tracking technology
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/bsr/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/
BASERUNNING
___
Fielding is probably the best indicator of effort
Baserunning too
___
Stat based Effort Index
Batting Average BA
Doubles
Triples
Fielding
Baserunning
___
Fielding = Effort + Skill Competence
at the MLB level
it is probably the best available measure of Effort
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d
___
Sprinting to base
Fielding
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d
___
Use Fielding
to measure effort
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=23,d
___
___
ESPN
KenPom
___
March Madness
you are getting good effort
___
NBA
1 bet a day
___
___
8 FLIP
USC was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Seton Hall was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Dayton was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Oregon State was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Texas Tech was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Colorado was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Saint Josephs was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
Wisconsin was the Higher Seed, but was the Underdog
___
6
6 vegas Favorites / ncaa Lower Rank (seed)
Win the game
9 Providence Favorite Wins -BUT does NOT cover
11 Gonzaga Fav
10 Syracuse Fav
10 VCU Fav
9 Butler Fav
9 Connecticut Fav
___
5
5 vegas Favorites / ncaa Lower Rank (seed)
Win the game AND COVER
11 Gonzaga Fav
10 Syracuse Fav
10 VCU Fav
9 Butler Fav
9 Connecticut Fav
___
9 Providence Favorite Wins -BUT does NOT cover
___
This is a a strange coincidence
Vegas Fix
NCAA tournament's 13th upset matches first-round record of '01
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/15014847/ncaa-tournament-upsets-match-first-round-record
___
Round 64
Vegas is shifty
you can't just categorically bet underdogs
___
___
16 underdogs covered
1
1
2.5
3
3.5
5.5
6
7
7
8
9
10
14.5
15.5
16.5
23.5
___
9 UPSETS (Vegas)
1
1
3
3.5
5.5
6
7
8
16.5
___
You still got to put your brain into it
Underdog bias is better
because you can MoneyLine
MoneyLine is the bonus
___
March Madness
Good effort
reduce variable
regular season worth of stats
___
college basketball
___
Round 32
second round
Depth
Favorite
___
Round 64
Underdog
___
Round 16
Underdog
___
Basketball is too volatile
___
stop eating junk
food drink
mind
heart
soul
brain
body
___
NBA is CRAP
college basketball
i don't think it will work
___
ESPN
College Basketball
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi
BPI:
The College Basketball Power Index
on a 0-100 scale
50 is average
higher is better
PVA:
BPI on the scale of points
expected point margin
vs an average opponent
in an average-pace game
on a neutral court
___
2015-16 BPI - Kentucky Wildcats
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/teamId/96
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/schedule/_/id/96
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/team/bpi?id=96&year=2016
___
ESPN Football Power Index - 2015
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings
FPI
Football Power Index
that measures team's true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.
___
Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/tab/efficiency
___
ESPN
College Basketball BPI PVA
College Football Power Index FPI
ESPN has the best Power Index
and they are close to Vegas
___
3 stages
(1)
Beginner's Luck
Major Structure / Systemic Trend
For example
Home Underdog
NHL Third Period Overs
(2)
Beta Testing
Research
Detailed
during this period
you may Not make a profit
you could lose money
PhD research stage
(3)
Prime Time
you have perfected your methodology
You may never reach this
I think
next season NHL hockey 2017-2016
MLB
this season may be a hybrid season
beta / prime
I think 2017 MLB may be prime
NHL hockey and MLB baseball has similar methology
___
Basketball is Volatile
just know that
___
Alpha And Omega
God's Gift
Blessing
this is where
it is coming from
Von Miller MVP
___
Forget Basketball
limit
time
amount
number
___
MLB
NHL
___
Football
too few games
limit
time
amount
number
___
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Table
PreFlop
Flop
River
3 nodes
A.I.
Straight
Flush
Draw
High Card winner
Community Cards Win
Loss minimization on the River