Thursday, January 14, 2016

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Statistically Speaking

First half NHL awards

Carolina Hurricanes

Ekman-Larsson elevates play

Scott Cullen



espn

FanGraphs made their first projection of the standings for 2016




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http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14576208/which-star-players-expected-play-nfl

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 http://www.thehockeynews.com

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 http://www.nhl.com/ice/blogpost.htm?id=44823&navid=nhl:topheads

 Carl Soderberg, C, Colorado Avalanche

 DraftKings price: $4,800
Mike Green, D, Detroit Red Wings

 DraftKings price: $4,500

 Parayko  4800

 David Perron, W, Anaheim Ducks
DraftKings price: $4,100
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=798668

 D-men scoring since Dec. 20
Player, Team
G
A P
Kris Letang, PIT 5 11 16
Duncan Keith, CHI 2 12 14
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, ARI 6 7 13
Brent Burns, SJS 6 7 13
Mark Giordano, CGY 3 10 13
Marc-Edouard Vlasic, SJS 3 9 12
Erik Karlsson, OTT 1 10 11

 Sharks' Vlasic underrated

 Nick Holden, Colorado Avalanche
Nick Holden, Colorado Avalanche
Nick Holden, Colorado Avalanche

 STl
POS PLAYER OPP FPPG SALARY  
C Paul Stastny StL@Det 2.8 $4,900 swap out
C Robby Fabbri StL@Det 1.9 $3,300 swap out
W Ty Rattie StL@Det 1.9 $2,600 swap out
W  

C  Jori Lehtera  StL@Det 1.7 $3,700 swap out
 
D Colton Parayko DTD StL@Det 2.8 $4,800 swap out


Dmitrij Jaskin
#23 RW6' 3", 211 lbsSt. Louis Blues
BornMar 23, 1993 in Omsk, Russia
Age22
Drafted2011: 2nd Rnd, 41st by STL
Experience3 years






Nick Holden  #2
Colorado Avalanche  Defenseman
3800


ALEX TANGUAY Colorado Avalanche | #40 LW
DraftKings Salary: $3,700


CARL SODERBERG Colorado Avalanche | #34 C
DraftKings Salary: $4,800



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_(ice_hockey)


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HAMPUS LINDHOLM Anaheim Ducks | #47 D
DraftKings Salary: $4,000
Getty Images
JAKOB SILFVERBERG Anaheim Ducks | #33 RW
DraftKings Salary: $4,100

 SAM REINHART Buffalo Sabres | #23 C

DraftKings Salary: $3,800

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https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/basic-50-50-and-double-up-strategy-174233

 Size of the Double-Up

 One of the biggest advantages of playing in double-ups is being able to control the amount of variance that you experience in your leagues. Since you only have to beat half of the field, you won’t have to worry about one or two teams that have a high score, all you have to worry about is how your team is playing compared to the rest of the field.
Controlling variance is important is DFS and when it comes to the size of the double-up, you can control the amount of variance even more. The larger the size of the double-up, the less variance you are going to have because your team will be compared to a much larger sample size. For example, if you join a 10-man double-up, you could potentially get a bad draw and get stuck against 7 opponents that put up really high scores that night. However, if you join a 200-man double up, there are going to 199 other opponents that you are competing against and you will have a much better idea of where your team stacks compared to the average.
Rule #4: Join 50/50s With Larger-Than-Average Fields

 A lot of one-week fantasy football players gravitate toward small double-ups (those with 10 or fewer entrants). They assume that competing against a smaller field increases their chances of winning.
http://www.dailyfantasysports101.com/5050-strategy-for-draftkings-7-rules-to-win/


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http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/14614005/ultimate-super-bowl-50-preview

MiT Black Jack team

55%  x Infinity
consider juice cut

55%  x 100,000

iterations

this decreases risk of ruin
poker tournament
risk vs reward
Fantasy - going deep can hurt you
it's a gift
quick analysis
remember NHL hockey 2013


Underdogs

 1 chip
2 chip

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Blackjack_Team

 While the MIT team's card counting techniques can give players an overall edge of about 2 percent, some of the MIT team's methods have been established as gaining players an overall edge of about 4 percent.[citation needed] In his interview, Chang reported that the MIT team had difficulty attaining such edges in actual play, and their overall results had been best with straight card counting.

 http://blackjacklife.com/blackjack-legends-bill-kaplan-and-j-p-massar/

 http://www.inc.com/magazine/20080801/luck-is-for-losers.html

 http://www.rickross.com/living-dream-retrospective-mit-blackjack-team/

 +150
3/2  BlackJack
if you are 50/50  

you make a profit

 If you doing +150
you just need to be right 50 percent of the time

 Default is Underdog
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hockey microstat

 https://jenlc13.wordpress.com

 http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2015/12/30/10689880/philadelphia-flyers-microstat-tracking-through-december-27

 http://statsportsconsulting.com/ottanalytics/

 http://www.topix.com/hockey-players/shayne-gostisbehere

 http://philadelphia.suntimes.com/philadelphia-flyers/7/96/241362/philadelphia-flyers-microstat-tracking-through-december-27


http://mmajunkie.com/2016/02/ufc-fight-night-82-staff-picks-which-4-got-unanimous-nods-on-main-card-in-las-vegas-1
http://www.foxsports.com/ufc/story/hendricks-vs-thompson-ufc-fight-night-crystal-ball-predictions-020416
http://fansided.com/2016/02/04/ufc-fight-night-hendricks-vs-thompson-preview-predictions/

 http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/2/5/10925192/ufc-fight-night-hendricks-vs-thompson-staff-picks-and-predictions

 ufc predictions

 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2613912-ufc-fight-night-82-predictions-main-card-staff-picks

 http://espn.go.com/mma/story/_/id/14720246/johny-hendricks-vs-stephen-thompson

 http://blogs.theprovince.com/2016/02/05/ufc-fight-night-hendricks-vs-thompson-punch-drunk-predictions/

 http://www.ufc.com/news/the-Downes-Side-Fight-Night-Las-Vegas-predictions?id=

 http://www.mmamania.com/2016/2/5/10918490/ufc-fight-night-82-predictions-preview-analysis-free-picks-hendricks-thompson-mma

 http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/stolenBases/type/opponent-batting



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