FanMD.com: November 2015

https://www.teamrankings.com/blog/ncaa-basketball/college-basketball-preseason-rankings-ratings-for-2015-16

Keep looking for the best Power Ratings

one way to verify Power Ratings
- are your calculations of point spread close to Vegas Point Spread

consider Home Court 4 points
in general

defensive teams
tall players that dunk
guards that penetrate for lay ups
are better road teams

college basketball
the Totals are Less than NBA
so Favorites covering is harder

cannot say there is parity

Kentucky is essentially an NBA team

But I can say
there are many unknown teams / little known teams
that are competitive

because a Basketball team only needs 5 players

compare that to football

MiT Black Jack

just look for an Edge / Value
it's about Price and Probability

ONLY UNDERDOGS

Underdogs
Vegas Luvs Underdogs
Underdogs gets Points, and start the game winning
the Favorite has to Get points
Luck and Randomness fight the favorite

Step 1
calculate Your point spread based in Power Ratings

compare to Vegas Point Spread

Look for Value

Vegas gives the Underdogs More Points
than the Power Ratings would calculate

consider home court advantage

Eliminate bad value

Step 2
Underdogs +10
take Underdogs with OVER +10 points

Psychological Number 5 goals
and consider both teams are scoring
so that could be 10 possessions total

Step 3
MONEYLINE ML
Underdogs with Power Rating Point Spread 5 or less

3 or less is best

that makes it a 50/50 proposition

you want payout Greater Than +200
Double Up

you want a 50/50 proposition
with a 2X payout

over the long run that is a very good proposiition

Take Advantage of the large number of college basketball games

Data Mining Filtering

College Football has elements of this

College Basketball is a extreme of the spectrum

pure numbers

College Football is a Hybrid

Pro Sports Winning is 50/50 most of the time

look at Nov 15 NFL Underdogs won most games

look at 2X moneyline and ask yourself - is it possible

Holly Holm

___________________________________

MoneyLine

Conventional thought process :
Who will win the game.
Is the payout ok.

Conventional thought process :
Who will win the game. ( without regard to probability )
Is the payout ok. ( this considers probability some )

MiT Black Jack 21 3/2 system
Start with propositions with > EV payout
3/2 1.5
2 X

Then ask yourself what is the probability of the bet hitting
If it's around 50/50 go for it

45 / 50 is Ok

basically look for 50/50 propositions with 2 X payout or better

it's a different sequence
it's a different question

conventional way
you want 100% certainty
and you tend to favorites

Vegas take advantage of this

Paradigm shift

7 Habits books
gd-less religion

think about its

The Question Matters

What is the question

Filtering
Data Mining
Series of Filtering and Elimination

One question at a time
Like a Computer Algorithm

The final step is
deciding the Amount risked
which can be Zero

______________

College Basketball

Look at *Power Ratings (PR)

Get the Best and most up to date Power Ratings (PR)

Calculate PR-based *Point Spread
using Power Ratings

Consider Home Court 4

4 = two goals
3 = three pointer = two and one
5 = three and two
6 = three and three

Future possible considerations
Tempo, Physicality, Height and Length,
Coaching, Scheme, Match-ups

To make up for Not considering the detailed variables
use Safety Margin like Warren Buffet

Safety Margin
PR *Point Spread vs Vegas Discrepancy
Underdog Point Spread
Equi-betting
Unit Betting
MiT Black Jack 21 style betting
large numbers of games

College Basketball is perfect for this system
it is like Black Jack

also it is hidden from Vegas

Compare PR-based *Point Spread
to Vegas Point Spread

Look for games where
Vegas gives More Points

ok to Keep games that Vegas is Same as PR-based *Point Spread

Eliminate the games that Vegas gives Underdogs Less

This is Filtering and Eliminating
Do it like a computer

First Question

the Underdogs with more than 10+ points

that was simple

reset and ignore the first Question

Second Question

first Filter MoneyLine payout greater then +200

second Filter
pick games with
PR-based *Point Spread
that is 3 or less

no more than 5

3 = three pointer one possession
5 = 3 and 2 two possessions

you are looking for games
where the Underdog has a 50/50 chance of winning

http://www.predictem.com/nfl/odds-conversion.php
-6 +200
-10 +300

reset after each question

another advantage of studying underdogs
is you get positive moneyline payout

______________

Soccer the Tie makes the math so complicated

______________

Hockey Questions

PuckLine Underdogs

MoneyLine Underdogs

PuckLine Favorites

MoneyLine Favorites -150 is an upper ceiling

-200 is an absolute No
unless massive injuries

reset after each step

Declare the Question
Reset

______________

Hidden Advantaage

Three Point Percentage

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/team/_/stat/3-points

Three Points Made / Per Game

Blocks
"Free Throws

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/predictive-by-other/

___

NBA

Point Differential

Boston Celtics

Phoenix Suns

Look at Top and Bottom

"Unknowns"

14 games in 11-21-2014

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/predictive-by-other/

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/last-5-games-by-other

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/vs-1-5-by-other

___

i think this may work

___

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-money-youtube-stars-actually-make-2014-2

https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=how+much+money+youtube&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-can-you-make-on-YouTube-if-your-video-goes-viral-and-is-monetized

http://videopower.org/how-many-views-to-make-money-on-youtube/

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-money-youtube-stars-actually-make-2014-2

http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2015/02/youtube-users-who-make-the-most-money/

http://www.adweek.com/socialtimes/money-youtube-partners-2013-infographic/129426

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a62kn7mtIF8

http://www.imponderablethings.com/2013/10/how-much-youtube-paid-me-for-4-million.html

http://receivetipstricks.com/how-much-can-you-make-from-youtube/

http://www.reelseo.com/youtube-partner-earnings/

k

http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2011/12/8/2621193/shot-quality-and-goal-trends

http://www.letsplayhockey.com/online-edition/russo/561-shooting-to-score-what-are-the-odds.html

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/your-guide-to-nhl-on-ice-percentages/

http://war-on-ice.com/glossary.html

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/5/20/4331542/nhl-stats-shooting-percentage-shot-rates-flyers

http://hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Shot_Quality.pdf

http://www.texashockey.com/drills/shootingstatistics.htm

http://howtohockey.com/the-goal-scorers-secret

http://thehockeymovement.com/category/ice-hockey-tips/hockeyshooting/

https://www.theseus.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/54090/Bachelor%20Thesis%20%20McMillan.pdf?sequence=1

http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on-hockey/22036452/the-roller-coaster-world-of-nhl-shooting-percentages

http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/31/how-something-as-important-as-shot-quality-is-not-that-important/

http://www.quanthockey.com/TS/TS_ShotPercentage.php

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25365075/-16-mlb-hot-stove-top-50-free-agent-tracker-power-rankings

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14514317/clemson-tigers-alabama-crimson-tide-lead-2016-way-too-early-top-25

FanMD.com

Friday, November 13, 2015

College Football Bama - Miss State