Week 5
http://espn.go.com/college-football/scoreboard/_/group/80/year/2015/seasontype/2/week/5
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/scoreboard/
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/matchups/
http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/against-the-spread/ncaaf
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/against-the-spread/
Week 5 - Now we can learn about the teams.
We can judge past games better.
Outliers - Look at the Top and the Bottom of the ATS standings.
Cincinnati QB Hayden Moore looks good.
Impressive win for Cincinnati.
Miami is a good benchmark.
Miami defense is not so good.
Miami offense passes too much.
Memphis is a good team.
But Memphis tends to not cover,
maybe over-rated by Vegas.
Going forward Memphis may not cover large spreads 7+ going forward.
Covering as large favorites & Covering as underdogs are different things.
South Florida covering as an underdog.
Temple is a good team, good defense, good offense.
I like Temple going forward.
Charlotte is a weak team.
Charlotte may not can cover.
BYU is a good team.
BYU is better as underdogs.
BYU did not cover.
UConn has good defense.
UConn may cover as an underdogs.
________________
Ohio State does not cover as large favorites.
Big Ten is Physical and competitive.
Vegas inflates the spread for Ohio State.
Also Urban Meyer mis-managed the QB situation.
He should have picked one QB and stuck to it.
The WRs and RBs and O-Line need to gel with the QB.
Ohio State will get better.
Indiana - give them respect.
Backup QB Diamont is not good.
Indiana needs QB Sudfeld.
Michigan State does not cover as large favorites.
Same set-up as Ohio State.
Purdue - give them respect, they battled.
Ole Miss - may have peaked against Bama.
Florida Gators - very impressed.
Texas - looks bad.
TCU - very impressed by offense and defense.
Coach is very good. Can cover large spread.
TCU tends to do better at home.
Texas Tech - middle tier team, QB was injured.
Baylor - actually legit win, looked good.
Baylor tends to do better at home.
Clemson - very impressed, best team in ACC.
Defense is young, but performing well.
Defensive Coordinator is very good.
Dabo Swinney is good in big games.
Notre Dame is still a good team.
UCLA - ??? Confusing loss.
Injuries on defense.
UCLA is inconsistent.
Mora did not keep the kids focused.
I am very very very disappointed with UCLA.
Arizona State - good bounce back game.
Arizona State had bad game vs USC.
Arizona State Win at UCLA is impressive.
Alabama has 5 star talent, but is young.
I think players tend to fear Saban, and are paralyzed.
Playing to Not lose. Not playing to win.
Team crystalized with loss.
Now play loose.
Nothing to lose.
Roll out the 5 star kids.
WR Calvin Ridley is great.
Like Jake Coker.
Saban / Lane Kiffin blew it vs Ole Miss.
Georgia is still a good team.
RBs are strong.
Eastern Michigan Covered, i like that.
Eastern Michigan was competitive vs LSU, good game.
LSU
L. Fournette is the best RB.
Derrick Henry is close second.
Florida State - not so impressive,
a work in progress.
Wale Forest covered as home underdog.
Mississippi State is a middle tier team.
Mississippi State is still a good team.
Probably better at home.
Texas A&M is impressive,
contender in the SEC West.
West Virigina is a middle tier team.
QB makes some idiot plays.
West Virginia may be better at home.
Oklahoma - I was impressed.
Defense was physical.
QB is good.
NorthWestern is a contender.
NorhWestern is out performing expectations.
Minnesota is middle tier team.
Not enough talent.
Arizona is soft, Not physical.
Offense goes east-west, i hate that.
QB has weak arm.
Backup is not that good.
QBs are liability like Missouri Mauk.
Arizona will continue to struggle.
Stanford - impressive, physical, basically a junior varsity Bama.
Physical. Plays Defense. Will beat Oregon.
Stanford and Utah are exceptions. Most Pac 12 teams are soft, pass to much, do not run the play, do not play defense, not physical, do not attack the line of scrimmage, tries to avoid contact, do not tackle, do not wrap up, do not hit. This is disgusting. Style and Scheme is a factor. Physicality is an X-factor. Physicality does not show up on the stat sheet. Utah is good on special teams.
Iowa is impressive. Physical.
Iowa has good defense.
Iowa will cover as underdog.
Wisconsin is weak on offense.
Wisconsin does have good defense.
Kansas State Covered
vs a good Oklahoma State team.
I would consider this a tie.
Michigan Harbaugh Very Impressed, true contender.
Maryland is not good.
Washington State Covered.
Cal Bears is better as an Underdogs.
Tulane had a good win.
UCF central florida is struggling.
Houston covered as a favorite.
Tulsa is better than last year.
South Carolina is struggling.
Missouri New QB Drew Lock is Good.
Much better than Maty Mauk.
If Drew Lock is playing, Missouri is a contender.
Mauk is a huge liability.
Pittsburgh is a good team.
Virginia Tech is scuffling because of injuries.
Army - I like Army - Army will cover as underdogs.
Penn State is a good team.
But Penn State may not cover as large favorites.
Penn State is better as and underdog, or small favorite.
I like Penn State and the Coach, but over-rated by Vegas.
Kansas is a very weak team.
Very bad teams may fail to cover even as underdogs.
Outliers is the key word.
Vegas power rating system to calculate point spread
does not take into account for Outliers
which are the very good and the very bad teams.
Iowa State is actually a good team, better than their record.
It is best to look at the schedule history of wins and losses,
and margin of victory.
Louisville impressed.
Louisville defense is good.
QB Lamar is their guy, and the offense is stabilizing.
Louisville will get better.
Some college teams need time to gel.
NC State - disappointed.
NC state is probably better as underdogs.
Don't be too harsh, Louisville played well against NC State.
NC State is still a good team.
Ohio - Akron
MAC has some good teams.
I am liking Mid West teams better.
Old School, Physical, Cold Weather.
Toledo is legit.
Toledo is a good team.
Ball State is solid.
Northern Illinois is solid.
Central Michigan plays with heart,
reminds me of Minnesota.
U.Mass played Temple close.
Navy is very good, will cover, ride them.
Wyoming covered.
In general, large point spreads a justified only with elite teams.
Appalachian State playing well, keep an eye on them.
Bowling Green solid.
Buffalo solid.
Miami Ohio playing better.
Kent State solid.
Georgia State not very good.
Old Dominion struggling.
Marshall good team.
Boston College has very good Defense, and is a Physical team, but no offense, bet the UNDER.
Duke is winning.
UNC North Carolina is a sleeper. Good team. Much better this year.
Georgia Tech is scuffling.
San Jose State Covered.
Auburn is disappointing.
Teams recruit QBs based on Height and weight too much.
Look at Cinci backup QB Hayden Moore, he is great, but a little small.
Texas A&M backup QB is too short and small, I can't believe he was a top prospect, he should play MLB baseball.
East Carolina - Great Coach.
SMU is better an underdog. SMU is better this year.
Nebraska Coach is Mediocre.
Illinois is playing better. QB is Wes Lunt.
Southern Mississippi has covered the spread all 5 games - wow.
Arkansas Won as underdog.
Tennessee has injuries and has thin depth.
Vanderbilt Defense is very good. Offense will get better.
Middle Tennessee is decent team.
Layfayette Louisiana ULL is scuffling.
Louisiana Tech covered big.
UNLV won, keep an eye on them.
Nevada not that good.
Utah State winning, impressed me.
Utah State has a great coach.
South Alabama has good players, need time to click, this was good win.
Idaho and Arkansas State both played their backup QBs.
Georgia SOUTHERN covered the spread big.
Kentucky went to OT with FCS Eastern Kentucky.
San Antonio Texas may get better.
Boise State covered big. Boise has a great coach.
Fresno State has injuries.
San Diego State covered.
Oregon is still the same Oregon team.
People are over-reacting the Utah loss.
Utah is a great team.
Utah is Physical, Plays Defense and Special Teams, Runs the Ball.
Utah is exactly the type of team the Oregon has problems with.
Utah is a very good team.
Oregon will blow out other soft fairy Pac 12 schools like Colorado.
Colorado was a perfect matchup for Oregon.
NFL Jeff Ma
First 4 weeks: Win 10 L 2
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13805157
Week 4 NFL
Washington +3
Carolina -3
StLouis +7
*Win Washington 23 - Philadelphia 20
*Win Carolina 37 - Tampa Bay 23
*Win StLouis 24 - Arizona 22
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13752640
Week 3
Dallas +1.5
Cincinnati +2.5
Buffalo +3
-Loss Dallas 28 - Atlanta 39
*Win Cincinnati 28 - Baltimore 24
*Win Buffalo 41 - Miami 41
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13699174
Week 2
Dallas +5
Atlanta +2.5
StLouis -3
*Win Dallas 20 - Philadelphia 10
*Win Atlanta 24 - Ny Giants 20
-Loss StLouis 10 - Washington 24
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=13645792
Week 1
Miami -3.5
SanFrancisco +2.5
Carolina -3
*Win Miami 17 - Washington 10
*Win San Francisco 20 - Minnesota 3
*Win Carolina 20 - Jacksonville 9
Jeff Ma PreSeason underrated undervalued teams
SF
NE
Cinci
STL
over rated Philadelphia
under rated Miami SF
LaCanfora 11-3 Week F
Ryan Wilson
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/4
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/3
Ride Experts ATS
Jeff Ma
LaCanfora
Ryan Wilson
Look at Last 2 Weeks
Weigh recent week more
Look at season record
Look at last season record
Look at other guys ATS
Pick out Consensus Picks
Team A Schedule / B Schedule
Win - Loss
Quality of Win - Loss
ESPN FPI power ratings
I think I have a system
It's about winning and research
Other people can do the research
for NFL
once you get picks
check depth chart injuries
for College I am the best
College Experts
Phil Steele
Fallica ESPN
Tom Fornelli
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/features/writers/expert/picks
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/features/writers/expert/picks/against-the-spread/4
CBS you need to look at the games that the guy picked
for college some picks are smarter than others
Ultimately for college, I am the best
for NFL better to go with experts
NHL hockey
College Football Me First
NFL experts Experts EZ
MLB baseball RunLine, Underdogs, First Five Innings, Elite Pitchers
New Elite Pitchers unknown rookies and second year players like Joe Ross
Focus
LaCanfora Ryan Wilson
Week 4 Consensus LaCanfora + Ryan Wilson Picks
Baltimore -3 push
Ny Jets -2.5 Cover
Carolina -3 Cover
Ny Giants +6 Cover Win
Oakland -3 -L
Atlanta -4.5 Cover
Jacksonville +4 Cover
Cincinnati -3.5 Cover
San Diego -5 -L
Minnesota +7 Cover
Green Bay -7.5 Cover
8 Win - 2 L - 1 push
Most Recent Performance has more weight
Vegas has lost control of NFL
Public Trends is a consideration, but not 100% in NFL
Vegas has lost control of NFL
but has not adjusted their old system of making point spreads
Vegas still believes the Lie of Parity
College Football - public is a consideration
Vegas is smarter than the public
NFL outliers ATS
Top
Green Bay
Cincinnati
Atlanta
Bottom
Indianapolis
Baltimore
Detroit
It's a bell shaped curve
most teams have parity
look at season Points Scored and Points Allowed per game
So there is Parity
But there are Outliers
Vegas Point Spread system does not consider the outlier
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/against-the-spread/
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/
http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/against-the-spread/ncaa-football?iadid=Nav_Sport_NCAAF_ATS_STANDINGS
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/against-the-spread/
google nfl video highlights
http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/car/carolina-panthers
http://www.nfl.com/scores
watch Highlights, no commercials, no stoppages, hit mute button on commercials
ESPN FPI gives ratings of Offense and Defense
I think that I am developing a system.
Atlanta Falcons
added RB, additional offensive weapons, defense, physicality
new Coach was DC of Seattle Seahawks
got power RB
Cincinnati
added additional offensive weapons, 2 RBs, AJ Green, other WRs, TE
having a multitude of offensive weapons opens things for Dalton
Dalton is competent, not Aaron Rodgers, but Dalton will work
also good D.
got power RB
STL Rams
with Gurley, they are much better
Gurley has great vision and footwork
Gurley runs high jumping gazelle
hard to tackle low
Ny Jets i like the new coach, great defense, and RB
Carolina is good , under rated
Phil eagles not so good, over rated
Raiders QB and WR playing better
KC Chiefs are offensively challenged, better at home
Aaron Rodgers is elite outlier
Greenbay has good defense
you can't just look at Stats in any sport
especially college football
and NFL
you need to see the Context
you need to see the opponent
it is better to look at box scores
and schedule of wins and losses
for example, in the first four weeks of college football, Baylor has the #1 offense, it is ridiculous to use these stats, considering the competition and that they had a bye week
in the NFL you can use these stats at the end of the season,
but every thing is relative,
end of season stats are meaningful
also you need to consider injuries
in college football
you need to benchmark
and look at box score
MLB has 162 games
NFL has 16 games, ten times less,
sample size is too small
NFL season stats are more meaningful
due to the parity of the league, and there are only 32 teams
College football has 128 teams
at the end of the season
league stats are useful
Baylor non-conference stats should be disallowed
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/13810619/dee-gordon-miami-marlins-edges-bryce-harper-washington-nationals-nl-batting-title
College Basketball - best play is in the first round of march madness, bet all underdogs.
Similar to college, bet against huge public favorites with strong underdogs, like Kentucky.
Separation. Big Picture. Outliers. Top and Bottom. Grind. Work. Data Mine. Speed. Smart. Errors Vegas. E.Z.
Soccer may be next season ~ keep it simple.
Remember why you started looking at more sports, it was to able to do the Black Jack 12 method, you needed many many events that are better than 50/50
https://philsteele.com/fbsinfo/2015/15powerratings.html
https://philsteele.com/miscpages/Injuries/Out%20for%20Year.html
https://philsteele.com/fbsinfo/2015/2015_Conf_POW/2015main.html
https://philsteele.com/fbsinfo/TeamPages/teampgsmain.html
https://philsteele.com/fbsinfo/2015/2015_College_Standings.html
https://philsteele.com/miscpages/AP_CCH_POLLS/AP_CCH_Poll.html
https://philsteele.com/FBSInfo/schoollinks.html
https://philsteele.com/fbsinfo/2015/15passeffD.html
https://philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/OCT15/DBOct06.html
https://philsteele.com/Blogs/2015/OCT15/DBOct01.html
https://philsteele.com/Blogs/CURRENT/DBlog.html
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=782115&navid=nhl:topheads
http://www.rotowire.com/hockey/depthcharts.htm
http://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research_files/Win_Probabilities.pdf
http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/story/2013-04-26/nhl-playoffs-2013-james-reimer-blackhawks-stats-patrice-bergeron1
http://dailylifestyle.com/perfectly-timed-photos/98/
http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/story/2013-04-26/nhl-playoffs-2013-james-reimer-blackhawks-stats-patrice-bergeron1
Apr. 26, 2013
Of the 702 games played in the NHL through Thursday, 323 have been decided by one goal, including 159 that went to overtime, with 95 of those progressing to shootouts. For comparison’s sake, 46 percent of NHL games have been decided by one goal this season, while 28.7 percent of Major League Baseball games in 2012 were decided by one run. In hockey in 2013, a standard 60 minutes has not been enough time to determine a victor 22.6 percent of the time, while 7.9 percent of MLB games last season went to extras. That does not even match the rate of NHL games that go to a shootout—13.5 percent.
